At the end of 2021, the S&P Peru General, the main index of the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL), registered an annual variation of + 1.39%, with 21,111.73 points.
In detail, the sectors that gained the most last year were construction (35.51%) and industrial (35.43%), followed by mining (5.55%). While those that lost the most were financial (-12.36%) and electricity (-10.68%).
César Romero, head of research for Renta 4; and Jorge Luis Ojeda, professor of Finance at the UPC; they agreed that Political instability led to little growth in the capital stock, despite high international commodity prices.
Romero explained that mining and construction showed recovery in the last stretch of 2021, mainly by companies such as Aceros Arequipa, Siderperú and Cerro Verde.
“What we have seen is a recovery in the prices of commodities, mainly copper, which reached a maximum since 2010. On the side of the construction sector, it has remained too strong with cement shipments reaching over a million tons. metrics for the whole year. This has generated growth within these stocks, “he explained.
However, the expert emphasized that, despite the “boom” of the red metal, this correlation was not reflected in the Peruvian stock market. “The Peruvian Stock Exchange has a very strong correlation with the price of copper and due to political pressure we saw that it was going down. Despite the ore reaching highs, the stock market remained lagging or stagnant. But it is recognized that after the closure of the Hochschild mines was denied and the conflict in Las Bambas was resolved, a very positive climate has been generated for the mining sector, “he said.
Another sector that lagged behind was the financial sector. According to Ojeda, this was mainly due to the “rescue towards people” such as the AFP and CTS withdrawals of funds; in addition to loans to medium and large companies such as the Reactiva Peru program.
“Banks have had to establish more aggressive policies in terms of evaluation and that reduces their ability to give loans. In addition, several small financial institutions have had problems because they have delinquent portfolios that they cannot recover, ”explained Ojeda.
Outlook for 2022
In mid-December, Credicorp Capital projected that the general index of the BVL could rise between 10% and 15%, in particular, if the political noise subsides.
In this regard, Romero affirmed that the figure is within what is foreseeable and that it could mainly benefit the financial sector.
“We believe that the financial sector will be one of those that will grow the most. It happens that this depends a lot on the rate of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), because a higher reference rate that has already risen to 3% causes the banks’ active rate to increase and as a result of that they they can get more out of the spread. That is one of the positive news, because precisely If the political panorama does not end negatively affecting the Stock Market, there will be a recovery like that of BBVA at relatively precovid levels ”, pointed out the specialist.
Along these lines, the R4 projections foresee that the electricity sector “could reactivate due to the higher dividends in the market.”
While, on the other hand, the construction item could have a slowdown in cement shipments, “due to the expansion of private investment of 0% (according to BCRP figures)”.
The data
Balance. The BVL selective index closed 2021 with an annual variation of 2.20%, with 563.56 points.
Sectors. The Lima Stock Exchange closed last year with 9 indicators up and 5 down.
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