At the end of 2020, the first year of the pandemic, the interbank exchange rate closed at S / 3.62; that is, it accumulated an increase of 9.20%. This 2021, the annualized increase exceeds 10.22 percentage points, since the us currency it appreciated and, for much of the year, it was above S / 4.00.
In the first quarter of 2021, the currencies of the region depreciated due to the increase in inflation expectations in the main developed economies in line with optimism about global economic performance in 2021, in addition to the electoral process that our country would hold.
Enrique Díaz Ortega, former central manager of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), specified that the instability of the dollar in the year “has been dominated mainly by the events caused by the electoral and political uncertainty in the country.”
After the first round (April 11), the BCRP reported that intraday variation presented greater persistence and was more sensitive to new information on electoral preferences.
“With the result of the second round, Castillo’s triumph was confirmed, but not without going through a period of more than a month on whether he had actually won or not, the other party refused to accept defeat, alleging fraud. The damage was done and the exchange rate touched four soles and these were the moments in which the greatest nervousness was experienced, ”said Matías Maciel, CEO of Rextie.
Pedro Castillo assumed command of the country on July 28, and, according to Maciel, the continuous clash between the prime minister and the parliamentary opposition led, once again, that political instability was predominant in the perception of economic agents.
In the third quarter of 2021 five new historical maximum levels: S / 4,007, after the swearing-in of Guido Bellido (July 30); S / 4,119, financial crisis of the Evergrande real estate (September 20); S / 4,123 and S / 4,128, between September 27 and 28, in the midst of the Camisea Gas nationalization proposal.
On October 6, in the face of uncertainty over the resignation of the premier, the dollar it once again reached another historical record of S / 4,138. Finally, Bellido left the Presidency of the Council of Ministers (PCM) and was replaced by Mirtha Vásquez.
From October 6 to 14, the exchange rate it depreciated by -5.27%, while in the period between July 29 and October 6 (Bellido presidency), the Peruvian sol fell by -5.35%.
From December 22 to 28, the dollar fell slightly mainly due to external factors such as the low risk of the variant Omicron.
For his part, Maciel stressed that the market has already internalized political tensions “as a daily matter” because this scenario was already seen from the management of Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and his “lawsuits with the 73 congressmen of Fuerza Popular.”
Enrique Díaz, also president of the consulting firm MCIF, attributed the increase in the exchange rate to the global inflationary situation “in which the prices of commodities of many inputs and situations of scarcity have skyrocketed.”
The truth is that both the global inflation as the volatility in the exchange rate weighed in the costs of some inputs or products of the basic family basket. For example, the Midagri bulletin indicates that the price of chicken in retail markets per kilo in December 2020 was S / 8.65 soles and in December 2021 it was S / 10.43. The difference is S / 1.78 which corresponds to an increase of 20.6%.
“In 2021, the dollar rose around 9.8%. This means that 85 cents of the increase in chicken corresponds to the increase in the dollar and 93 cents approximately to other factors, “said Jorge Luis Ojeda, a finance professor at the UPC, who added that those percentage points of the annualized increase mean that” the goods that they are imported in dollars and have suffered a 10% increase in soles ”.
Without clear forecasts
In accordance with the expectations of the Multiannual Macroeconomic Framework (MMM) 2022-2025, published on August 27 by the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), the price of the dollar should be S / 3.93 at the end of this year. While, on the other hand, the survey of macroeconomic expectations carried out by the BCRP predicts that economic agents expect a minimum exchange rate of S / 4.00 for the end of this year. The projections of the BCRP survey of economic agents only show that the exchange rate could close next year at S / 4.14.
“The world is a bit alarmed by the Ómicron issue and it will depend on the response of the various countries. A possible third wave is beginning in our country. Likewise, we would have to wait for the first two weeks of next year how the new variant is going in Peru and the political uncertainty. That will depend on how the dollar goes in January, at least, later on it is a bit unpredictable, “said Ojeda.
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