The Peruvian economy shows a slight improvement in the growth projections of the Internal gross product (GDP), according to the most recent survey of macroeconomic expectations of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). However, the forecasts remain very distant and skeptical of the optimistic figure that promises the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) At the end of the year.
Recall that Minister José Salardi said that in 2025, the GDP From Peru would grow 4.0%, A rate that would locate the country as a growing leader of the region, promoted by new investments, Business trustlow inflation, high raw material pricesa process of deregulation and flexibility of financing costs.
However, as of February 28, the Economic analysts Consulted in the BCRP survey, their growth forecast by 2025, from 3 %to 3.1 %, but is an even lower than that registered at the end of last year (3.3 %).
Similarly, the financial system reviewed its estimate of 2.9%to 3%, while non -financial companies maintained their projection by 3%. These figures are more aligned with what the Central Reserve Bankwhich foresees a 3% advance for this pre -election year. But all, far from what Salardi’s wallet expects.
GDP: projections for the coming years
Looking ahead to 2026, despite being an election year, economic analysts foresee a 3%advance, while the financial system maintains its estimate at 2.9%. Non -financial companies, meanwhile, continue to project a growth of 3%.
By 2027, the panorama becomes almost the same. Economic analysts expect 3.1%growth, the financial system places it at 3.0%, and non -financial companies show greater optimism with a 3.3%projection.
“A roof of between 3% and 4% economic growth is low if the goal of decreasing the still existing poverty (29% of Peruvians are poor) is required,” said MEF former Luis Miguel Castilla.
Business courage in recovery
In February 2025, most of the indicators of business expectations and current situation showed a recovery compared to the previous month. Of the 18 indicators evaluated by the BCRP, 15 were located in the optimistic section.
In the long term (12 months), business expectations on the Peruvian economy are maintained in the field of trust, with a score of 60.7 points. It should be remembered that any figure below 50 points indicates pessimism.
In the short term, optimism has also grown. The expectation of three months economic performance rose from 52.6 points to 54.5 in February, while the 12 -month projection increased from 58.2 to 60.7 points, consolidating in the optimistic section.
According to economist Juan Carlos Odar, three indicators reached their highest level so far from the government: Expectations about the situation of the economy, company situation and business investmentall three months. However, the indicator of “Demand regarding what was expected” Follow in a negative zone.
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
