It is not the first time that the Ministry of Economy overestimates the projections of economic growth. The former MEF José Arista also projected an expansion of productive activity with 4% rates for 2024. However, this was not fulfilled and Peru closed the year with 3.3%, according to official figures from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).
From the new forecasts for this 2025 that point to 4%, an exaggerated optimism scenario appears again that already begins to be liable to doubts and criticism of Minister José Salardi. Precisely, Alonso Segura, president of the Fiscal Council, warned news that this projection of the MEF could affect compliance with the country’s fiscal goals.
“It is concerned that, in recent years, the government has had exaggeratedly optimistic growth projections and that has led to very optimistic tax revenue projections that have not materialized. You have to be careful to be carried away by figures that do not necessarily leave To give, because that can then complicate the fulfillment of the country’s fiscal objectives, among others, “he said.
Along these lines, Segura explained that a high estimate of GDP can drag to other types of macroeconomic projections and decisions made by the current government such as the formulation of the multiannual macroeconomic macro, the determination of the capacity of expenses and the budget.
Finally, he recalled that there have already been situations of non -compliance due to too optimistic entry and growth forecasts. For MEF former, this new estimate of the expansion of the GDP is located well above the consensus of economists oriented to rates below 3%.
Salardi’s reasons to adjust the growth projection
As explained José Salardi During the presentation of the economic performance perspectives 2025, its main letters to support a growth rate of 4% are the launch of new public and private investment projects, a “deregulatory shock”, consolidate business confidence, the control of the inflation and high metal prices such as gold and copper.
“Investments do not materialize immediately. In the case of public investment, it grew a lot last year in a context of breach of the fiscal deficit. On that side, there is no room for that investment growth, unless they generate additional sources from Income.
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
