Although the initial projections pointed to a 3% growth for this year, the Minister of Economy and Finance, José Salardi, surprised with a forecast that overflows optimism: now he estimates that the PBI will reach 4%. His enthusiasm is not isolated, since the president of the Council of Ministers, Gustavo Adrianzén, has come to point out that growth could approach 5%.
“It is a totally misaligned projection with the estimates of the Central Reserve Bank, the results of its latest survey of macroeconomic expectations and the projections of international organizations and analysts,” said former Minister of Economy and Finance, Pedro Francke, in statements to the Republic .
During the presentation of the Economic Performance Perspectives 2025Salardi explained that the figure is aligned as discussed with important guilds, congressmen and among others.
Fiscal deficit
He also explained that the upward adjustment in the projection of the GDP It responds to a favorable context, driven by high metal prices, a greater dynamism of public and private investment, as well as inflation control and the reduction of the fiscal deficit, which is estimated to be closed by 2.2%.
As remembered, the fiscal deficit closed at 3.6% in 2024 and has not shown any reduction so far this year. In addition, so far no significant measures have been proposed to correct this imbalance.
“It promises a legally approved goal that requires considerable adjustment, but it is difficult to comply with when the government itself, and even the minister, announces an acceleration of public investment, an increase in spending and does not raise any measure to strengthen collection,” Francke warned.
This newspaper reported a few days ago that José Salardi would have approved the expansion of exemptions for large agro -exporters and drawback (tax reimbursement for exporters), so, according to the former minister, his latest comment would lack consistency .
Actually, it would be a reflection of what was previously said by its predecessor, José Aristawho also announced the implementation of a but during its management the fiscal deficit shot and increased by more than 1%.
On the other hand, about private investment, Francke warned that it is necessary to strengthen inspection to avoid negative consequences.
“Private investments are important, but at this juncture we have seen that an adequate inspection is needed,” said Francke, referring to recent incidents such as the collapse of the Royal Plaza de Trujillo and the fall of the Chancay bridge, both with mortal victims. “They are private investments or public-private associations, and have ended with a balance of dead,” he said.
Inflation
The head of the MEF, José Salardi, foresaw that inflation will conclude the year about 2% and that the exchange rate will be located at S/3.78. For Francke, although he recognized the downward trend of inflation and the reduction of interest rates by the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP), warned that internal consumption could be affected this year due to the absence of measures that promoted spending in 2023, such as CTS and AFP retreats.
“The minister is forgetting a key factor that promoted internal consumption last year and that this year will not be present,” he said.
On the possibility of new retirement of pension funds given the more than ten proposed bills, Francke avoided making predictions, but warned about the influence of Congress in a pre -election context.
“We are in a congress that takes many populist measures, and that can be exacerbated,” he concluded.
Source: Larepublica
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