He Credit Bank of Peru (BCP) He indicated that the Peruvian economy will enter the intermediate phase of the economic cycle this year. Through its special monthly and market report, it estimated a first dynamic semester with a growth of non -primary activity close to 4%.
Similarly, he said that the last part of the year would be less vigorous due to the proximity of the pre -election period of April 2026, which many analysts have described as a stage of uncertainty. So far, the GDP He has been recovering from the 2023 recession and closed 2024 with 3.3%. This rhythm could slow down in the second semester.
“While not all economic cycles are the same, and not all economic sectors move in unison, it is important to take into account the different phases of the cycle and their characteristics. In 2024, the economy moved to the early phase of the economic cycle and bouncing post -recession when the supply shocks of 2023 dissipated; Now this year the economy would enter the intermediate phase, ”said Carlos Prieto, manager of the BCP Economic Studies Area.
In that line, he explained that the intermediate stage of the economic cycle is the longest and the one in which the dynamism of the productive activity is consolidated, although they can be observed in some more moderate growth rates sectors than in the early stage which was compared versus negative rates in 2023.
“In this intermediate phase, inventories and sales reach relative balance, business profits are favorable, credit growth is usually accelerated, and monetary and fiscal policy moves to a neutral position,” he added.
Inflation in Peru
According to him National Statistics and Informatics Institute (INEI)our country closed 2024 with an inflation of 1.97%, a result that was not registered since 2020, when said indicator also reached a 1.97%. For this year, the BCP estimates a rate of 2.5%, but a slowdown is not ruled out about 1% in the coming months due to high monthly records.
Finally, the BCP Economic Studies area provides that the Central Reserve Bank will resume the reference interest rate cuts throughout the year, reaching between 4.25% – 4.50% at the end of 2025.
“A new cut in March or April is more likely, in a context where the total annual and Core inflation would continue to slow From the BCP.
Source: Larepublica
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