Alonso Segura, president of the Fiscal Council: “A comprehensive approach that combines investment, security and social development” is missing “

Alonso Segura, president of the Fiscal Council and former Minister of Economy and Finance, in dialogue with the Republic presented the economic landscape of Peru by 2025. With the arrival of José Salardi to the Ministry of Economyemphasized the urgency of a new direction to face the lack of control of public spending and ensure tax sustainability.

And as the country approaches a pre -election year full of uncertainties, it warned about the risks of an increasing deficit, the lack of structural reforms and the impacts of insecurity on economic stability. To this, an international context that could accentuate volatility is added, especially given the possible intensification of the protectionist policies of the main commercial partners.

-What is the state of the economy in Peru at the end of the year of management of former Minister of Economy José Arista?

Leave a vulnerable economy, with a significant increase in the fiscal deficit in unprecedented magnitudes. Performance indicators remain relatively weak or mediocre, and there is an obvious lack of will on the part of the government to stop initiatives promoted from the Congress of the Republic.

-The former minister maintained a relationship that could be described as confrontational with the Fiscal Council. Arista called him “inept” and responsible for the fiscal trajectory, although he later apologized and said that his intention was to sit down to talk to improve the law of fiscal responsibility. With your departure, do you have comments about it?

There was no confrontational attitude of me or the Fiscal Council (hereinafter CF) towards the former Minister. I would like to be able to say the same on the other side. Moreover, even after this incident, we request in writing meeting with the CF in full due to our concern for the fiscal performance of the country, but we never receive an answer. Now, given the trajectory of the current Minister of Economy, José Salardi, we hope that this situation will change for good.

-Resteely, he warned that the 2025 budget is unbalanced for including uncertain income from tax controversies. He criticized the Congress for adding measures without financing and warned about the risk of losing the investment grade. He also pointed out that the MEF has refused to provide the requested information. Is this scenario as a consequence of the edge of edge?

While some of the problems come from the ministerial management prior to edge, they are mainly exacerbated situations of yours with an uncontrolled growth of spending and a systematic breach of fiscal rules. The 2025 budget also reflects this crisis: from its origin in the Executive it was already definanced, and Congress added measures without financing, which will increase the pressure due to supplementary credits and possible breaches.

In addition, the MEF has been opaque in the delivery of information to the CF, breaching its legal obligations and making it difficult to supervise public finances. Therefore, we will wait for the new minister to be installed to reiterate the request for an appointment and address the fiscal problem that subsists.

-Handing returned to the debate about the high deficit, do you think it will be repeated this year?

In 2025 there will be a decrease in fiscal deficit due to the record price of raw materials and a temporary increase in collection due to extraordinary payments of companies in the sector, derived from the favorable situation of 2024. This could decrease the deficit of 3, 6% to 2.6% of GDP.

However, this improvement is transitory and does not guarantee compliance with the fiscal rule, since to achieve the goal a greater effort in income generation and its savings or an effective reduction of public spending would be required.

-Canside convenient to change the fiscal rule?

The problem has not been the fiscal rule itself, but the lack of will of different actors to fulfill it. In 2024, the fiscal rule was modified to adjust it to a 2.8%deficit, but still breached and closed at 3.6%. This is an unprecedented case: the rule had never been breached the same year in which it was modified, or in such a great magnitude since its implementation in 2000.

In that sense, modifying the rule in the current context of constant non -compliance would be perceived as a maneuver to make demands more flexible without addressing the real problem: irresponsible management of public finances. The change cannot be justified just because the established parameters has not been met.

In addition, since a serious review process would take time and the electoral context is close, the most prudent would be that any change is postponed to the next government.

-From the Fiscal Council were also emphatic in which finance must be protected against Congress. Will this minister have the profile to do it?

José Salardi has a conciliatory profile and has demonstrated responsibility in his management for pro -investment. These characteristics could help you order public finances, but the key will be how much strength and support it has within the Executive to resist political pressures and stop excessive spending initiatives by Congress. An important challenge will be to face the recent interpretation of the Constitutional Court on article 79 of the Constitution. This ruling has opened a dangerous door by allowing Congress to approve or increase expenses provided that the following year, which puts tax sustainability and multiannual budget programming.

-A at the country level, with a growth of 3%, is Peru achieve its potential in a context of high metal prices?

The projected growth around 3% might seem close to the potential, however, various studies, including analysis of the Fiscal Council and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), indicate that Peru’s growth potential has been reduced in last years, standing between 2.3% and 2.5%. It is true that with the rise of raw materials it can generate a rebound in growth, but this impulse is artificial and transitory.

-What’s rate should Peru grow to reduce poverty?

There is no magical figure, but to reduce poverty in a sustained way the country needs to grow at rates greater than 4%, approaching 5% per year. Although in 2023 poverty was probably reduced, this was due to temporary factors such as the fall in inflation and the recovery of real income, rather than a structural improvement of the economy.

-One of the main achievements attributed to the government until the exit of edge is to have recovered the economy compared to 2023

The economic recovery of 2024 is due to the reversal of transient shocks and external factors, not to a consistent economic policy of the government. True progress will depend on investments and sustained growth, not on optimistic messages without solid bases.

-We are in the months before the results of poverty based on the new indicators. Do you think we will have better indicators of the expected?

Peru continues to pray in poverty compared to other countries in the region, with a rate of 7 to 9 points above prepaymia levels. Although a slight reduction in the short term is expected, it will not be sustainable if the growth remains below 3% in the coming years.

-Care that we are maintaining adequate growth and controlled poverty levels?

No. Growth has been promoted by external factors, not by robust policies. We need continuous efforts, not a “big bang.” That is, structural reforms that increase investment, formal employment and productivity, although these are difficult to implement. In addition, it is essential to avoid irresponsible expense and ensure that fiscal expansion is sustainable.

-It is inevitable to project the year in a scenario of uncertainty because we are in a pre -election period and the news about the international context are constant. Do you think these factors represent a risk to the Peruvian economy?

Yes. The pre -election year generates both internal and external volatility, and US protectionist policies, such as tariffs and weakening of FTAs, can significantly affect the Peruvian economy, which depends on these agreements. In addition, uncertainty impacts confidence in debt issuance and economic stability in general. The Government must prepare for possible global or regional risk scenarios, in order to protect economic growth and social stability.

-How do you see the closing of 2025 for the Peruvian economy?

Although the base scenario suggests that the country could maintain moderate growth of around 3%, there is a downward bias, since it is likely that external uncertainty negatively influences expectations. The Central Bank will probably adjust interest rates in a cautious way, aligned with the Federal Reserve. In the fiscal, the government must consolidate finance, reduce the deficit and avoid financing spending with public assets, strengthening savings for future contingencies. It is necessary that Congress take evidence -based measures and that political and institutional stability is maintained, especially in the face of challenges in citizen security and illegal activities, which affect internal and international trust.

-A important objective for this year is to unlock mining projects; However, they face the growing prominence of illegality and informality in the sector.

Not only aggravates environmental and social impacts, but is associated with the expansion of informal economy and organized crime, which increases its penetration into the state and creates a cycle of impunity and institutional vulnerability. A comprehensive approach that combines investment, security and social development is missing.

-What is the economic impact of insecurity in the country?

While it is difficult to quantify, it is evident that insecurity affects both large companies and small businesses and daily activities. The emigration of qualified people can drain to Peru of key talent for their future economic development.