There is an oversupply of chili, onion, squash and tomato: prices in markets could collapse

The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri) published the results of the National Survey of Planting Intentions-ENIS 2024, which reveals a possible oversupply of crops such as chili, garlic, onion, tomato, pea, paprika and squash in the 2024/2025 campaign.

The 23 transitory crops considered priority due to their share in the Gross Production Value will increase by 4.3%, reaching the sowing of 2 million 99,777 hectares throughout the country. This is a development of 4.1% compared to the 2023/2024 sowing intention.

There will be peaks for 19 crops: chili, garlic, rice, dry grain peas, green grain peas, sweet potato, barley grain, onion, dry grain beans, dry grain broad beans, hard yellow corn, choclo corn, ulluco, potato, paprika, tomato, wheat, cassava and squash, which together represent 87% of the total area estimated in the planting intentions for this campaign.

“A significant increase in production tonnes could dramatically alter prices,” said César Santisteban Pérez, Director General of Statistics, Monitoring and Policy Evaluation (DGESEP) of Midagri.

But quinoa fell

In detail, a dangerous increase in the number of hectares is expected for the campaign compared to the average of the last five seasons, for pumpkin (52%), chili (50%), tomato (34%), paprika (29%), garlic (22%), green pea (10.8%) and dry pea (8.5%).

The traffic light is on amber for dry beans, broad beans and sweet potatoes. Regarding the latter, there were problems at the beginning of the year with the oversupply from Lima, which was concentrated in two weeks with very large fruits.

However, there is a significant drop in quinoa planting intentions for the 2024/2025 campaign, driven in part by the problems of lack of rain and the cona-cona plague that affected Puno (50% of national production) in 2023.

Unlike other crops, Midagri does not rule out a slight increase in consumer prices for quinoa, especially if the rains do not arrive in August and September, which would consolidate the pessimism of producers.

Greater supply means lower farm prices

• There are 20 regions that will experience an increase in their planted areas of 101,954 ha, 6.3% more than the sowing carried out in those same areas compared to the average of the last five agricultural campaigns (1 million 612,389 ha).
• The ENIS highlights the growth of intentions in regions such as Ancash (25.1%), Lambayeque (16.3%), San Martin (6.7%), Huanuco (10.2%), Ucayali (29.5%) and La Libertad (4.1%). Potatoes will also reach 356,700 ha, an increase of +4.4% compared to the average sowings carried out in the last 5 campaigns.