By: Carlos Bessombes and Cristina Alvarado
The dollar fell yesterday for the fifth consecutive session and reached S / 3,920, its lowest level since the eve of the presidential change of command on July 26, when it closed at S / 3,910.
The closing of this Thursday represents a decrease of -1.38% compared to the closing of Wednesday when it was located at S / 3.9750.
According to information from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), yesterday the ‘green bill’ touched a maximum of S / 3,965 and a minimum of S / 3,917.
Meanwhile, the price of the dollar in the parallel market was S / 3.85 for the purchase and S / 3.89 for the sale; meanwhile, at the window of the main banks the purchase was quoted at S / 3,917 and S / 3,938 for the sale.
Regarding other emerging currencies, the sol is already the currency that appreciated the most in the last week against the dollar. However, so far in 2021, the figure is reversed, and that is that the exchange rate advanced 8.32% and 9.13% in the last 12 months. (See infographic).
Impact on the citizen
Every day, Alonzo (34 years old) gets up from his bed with a worry that does not allow him to live in peace. “How much is the dollar?” He asks. The answer has been torture every day. He thinks of greenbacks and the dollar symbol reverberates in his head.
“I pay the rent for my house in dollars. In January of this year I paid approximately S / 530 when the exchange rate was S / 3.81. And with all this increase that has occurred, now in September I paid S / 601 at the S / 4,145 exchange rate. They are S / 70 more ”, he affirms.
With that amount (S / 70), Alonzo could pay for the maintenance of the building, electricity or water. You just have to wait until it is January 2022 for the contract to end and, finally, you can move elsewhere to pay in soles.
To that extent, despite the fact that this week’s reduction may be a joy to many, product prices would not be immediately impacted. It is estimated that the prices of flours, oils and even fuel would only change in a couple of weeks.
Enrique Castellanos, a professor of Economics at the Universidad del Pacífico, explained that it is unlikely that someone who bought wheat at high prices will sell it today at lower prices due to an inventory issue.
“This has its transmission mechanism until it reaches the markets and the prices of some foods. It would have to stay for a couple of weeks so that, eventually, it begins to feel on the street, “he said.
Castellanos explained that during these days the behavior of the exchange rate was motivated by international factors, as observed in other markets, and by the rise in the price of copper (our main export product). To this is added, he noted, the political issue, but also for the payment of taxes in the country, since companies have to sell their dollars to pay taxes.
“People who have the ability to buy dollars at this time, would do well to take this forecast”, Castellanos recommends, because although the currency has taken a breather, due to the departure of Guido Bellido from the premiership, as well as the ratification of Julio Velarde in the BCRP, “the Government remains the same, with a very limited capacity in terms of management, so the dollar could fall to S / 3.90 and could hold at those levels and then resume the upward path, “warned Castellanos.
Concentration affecting
Kurt Burneo, a research professor at Centrum Católica, insisted that the fall in the dollar does not have an automatic effect on prices, because in the case of imported goods and supplies, the stock of these must be finished, bought with a higher dollar.
“And also given the concentration of markets, it is difficult to transfer to final prices. To wait seated ”, He stressed through his social networks.
Along these lines, Jorge Guillén, associate professor at ESAN, assured that the change in the cabinet and the ratification of Julio Velarde in the board of directors of the BCRP they would be generating a drop in the exchange rate. “The dollar moves away from the barrier of 4 soles. However, it would be the oligopolies of the companies that would prevent the prices of the products from falling. They are reluctant to lower prices. They do not do it at the same speed as the dollar. Importers are reluctant to lower it ”, questioned the economist.
Stock market close to recouping its losses
The performance of the Lima Stock Exchange (BVL) is very close to recovering what was lost in the year, he predicted Jorge Ojeda, professor at the EPE Business School of the UPC.
Yesterday the general index of the BVL, the most representative of the Lima square, rose by 0.26% and so far this month it did so by 8.02%.
While, so far in 2021, the general index falls by 5.17%.
“Investors move based on the expectations of the economy and the performance of companies. We had negative expectations as of July 28, but, at this time, apparently they are being reversed ”, added Ojeda.
He added that when there are special events, the stock has a rebound, but after the rebound there are some corrections. Therefore, he explained that it is possible that next week there will be some negative days, but that they would be natural corrections. “Then it will start to grow little by little. It will depend on the signals of the Government ”, he indicated.
Likewise, the specialist announced that the BVL would end the year in blue numbers, which will depend on what is going to happen in the following weeks and months. “I think this year is going to end in a positive way. I hope it’s 1% or 2%, which would be a good sign for next year, ”he said.
The word
Kurt Burneo, Catholic Centrum researcher
“The fall of the dollar does not have an automatic effect on prices, because the stock bought with the highest dollar must be finished, and also given the concentration of markets it is difficult to transfer it to final prices.”
Kingston is an accomplished author and journalist, known for his in-depth and engaging writing on sports. He currently works as a writer at 247 News Agency, where he has established himself as a respected voice in the sports industry.
