The Peruvian economy broke all forecasts—including those of the Peruvian Government—and recorded a growth of 5.28% in April, due to a strong recovery in the fishing and agricultural sectors, in addition to two more days of productive activity in the absence of the Easter holidays, which were scheduled this year in March.
This is the greatest GDP development in 31 months, since September 2021. The growth in the fourth month of the year was led by non-primary sectors. Beyond the fact that agriculture and fishing had high rates, the final result was guided by sectors such as construction, which already had a positive rate.
In detail, the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI) specified that fishing registered a solid growth of 158.4% compared to April 2023, supported by the volume landed of species of maritime origin (+212.3%) for consumption. indirect human.
Regarding agriculture, the variation registered in April 2024 of 23.69% was explained by the higher incidence of products such as potatoes (73.22%), quinoa (816.51%), alfalfa (25.75%), paddy rice (5.17%), paprika (125.98%), grain barley (1,069%), dry grain bean (165.1%), goose (108.8%), among others. The Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri) had already anticipated an oversupply of crops this year.
In contrast, the mining and hydrocarbons, financial, and accommodation and restaurants sectors showed a decrease. For example, metal mining decreased by 4.46% due to a lower level of production of copper (-8.20%), zinc (-29.75%) and lead (-1.52%); while hydrocarbon production fell -3.60% due to lower exploitation of natural gas by -5.37%, crude oil (-4.42%) and natural gas liquids by -1.91%.
A particular case is that of the financial sector, which, according to INEI, decreased -2.76% due to the increase in the BCRP reference rate, which translated into a weak participation associated with lower loans granted by commercial banks.
A flower in the desert
Juan Carlos Odar, director economist of Phase Consultores, mentions that the growth rate will probably not be sustained for the coming months. He highlights, in this sense, the contribution of fishing and agriculture to the manufacturing sector.
“If we removed these favorable conditions, we would be talking about growth that would have been around 2.5%, not as strong as this time, but higher than in previous months,” he emphasizes.
Due to this April result, Phase Consultores updates its growth projection for the local economy in 2024 from 2.4% to 2.8%. Significant construction development is also expected for May due to strong public spending.
“Probably, in the coming months, we will see growth of no more than between 2.5% and 3%,” emphasizes the expert.
Collection also remains in the doldrums
The accumulated growth between January and April was 2.38%, while the annualized snapshot gave an advance of 0.30%, according to the INEI.
The May collection, discounting the tax refund, reached S/11,577 million, Sunat reported. This amount rounds out a 5.5% drop in the first five months of 2024, with an accumulated total in the treasury of S/66,547 million, as well as a 1.5% decline compared to the same month in 2023.
In the moving quarter March-April-May, the employed population of metropolitan Lima totaled 5 million 402,700 people, according to INEI.
Source: Larepublica
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