Like a bucket of cold water, national production during March returned to negative territory and fell 0.28%, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).
The fall in GDP during the third month is explained by the deterioration of the manufacturing, fishing, telecommunications and construction sectors (see infographic); added to the pronounced slowdown in mining growth (+2.60%) compared to February —when it reached 13%—.
The INEI notes that the sectors had 2 days less activity, since Holy Week was scheduled this year for March 28 and 29; while, in 2023, it will be commemorated on April 6 and 7.
“There is a slowdown that will cool expectations. Low growth of close to 0.2% or 0.3% was anticipated, but the result has been worse than expected,” former head of Sunat Luis Arias Minaya told La República.
In addition, there is the slowdown in domestic cement consumption and the progress of public works, which keeps construction from the double-digit rate as at the beginning of the year.
Anchovy and copper, the pillars
Although in the first quarter it was possible to break the negative path and rebound to 1.38%, Arias Minaya assured that the INEI data will impact growth expectations and recalled that the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) is “something too euphoric”, since they expect the GDP to climb this year to 3.1%.
“I rather believe that we will end up (with a GDP) around 2.5%. Starting in the second half, there will be a positive impact not only in mining due to the records in the price of copper, but also because last year there was no fishing season. There the figures will improve. If it weren’t for copper and anchovy, the growth figures would not be very good,” the economist noted.
Between January and March, fishing activity suffered a contraction of 29.53% and financial and insurance activity, of 4.54%. Meanwhile, manufacturing fell 6.14%.
On the other hand, mining rose 7.64% and construction, 5.12%; as well as electricity, gas and water, with 3.87%, and accommodation and restaurants, with 3.58%.
Copper price continues to climb
At press time, the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange —the most important market globally—reached US$4,636 per pound and, in tons, US$10,221.
At the beginning of the week, the Ministry of Economy and Finance He assured that, for every 10 cents of a dollar that the red metal increases in its annual average, Peruvian economic activity will do so by 0.1 percentage points.
The international value of copper has risen 14.9% so far this year and, as of May 8, stood at US$4.42 per pound, according to the BCRP’s Weekly Information Summary.
The key
Advantage. In March alone, the accommodation and restaurants category grew 5.62% due to the dynamism of both, 14.69% and 5.32%, respectively, adds the INEI report. The rise in indicators responded to the opening of franchises and promotions for Cyber Days, Women’s Day and Easter.
Source: Larepublica
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