Investment expectations are optimistic again

By Susana Condado T.

Since March 2021, before the second round of the presidential elections where Keiko Fujimori and Pedro Castillo faced each other, the short-term investment expectations of companies moved to the pessimistic range, dropping from 51.4 to 45.8 points. Only in March of this year, after a period of 36 months, would entrepreneurs have a more hopeful outlook for short-term investments.

According to the latest survey carried out by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), businessmen’s three-month investment expectations rose in March to 51 points compared to the 48 they did in February. It is important to specify that greater than 50 points (neutral position) means that confidence is in the optimistic section and less than 50 points in the pessimistic section.

Daniel Hermoza, director of Mypes Unidas del Perú (MUP), points out that Political instability discouraged investment since businessmen based their decisions on predictability. Furthermore, he affirms that the State has become the main client of mypes.

“The private sector, as it is in a recessive process, does not consume or buy as before. The Government and public institutions then become the main clients of mypes. Unfortunately, the State does not pay you,” he points out.

Likewise, it calculates, as a business union, that the debt that the State could have with the mypes would be around S/15,000 million.

Almost all expectations are improved

Of the 18 indicators of macroeconomic expectations, 14 were located in the optimistic range. However, despite the fact that we would be talking about a good start after the negative section of the business group’s expectations in relation to short-term investment was broken, the current scenario of political instability could change the panorama again.

In relation to macroeconomic expectations for the growth of the GDPIn March, the groups consulted by the BCRP increased their growth expectation for 2024 to a range between 2.5 and 2.7%, while for 2025 this variable is expected to be between 2.7 and 3%.

Diego Macera of the Peruvian Institute of Economics highlights that three-month economic expectations move into positive territory for the first time since April 2021.

“Almost three years in the red; “It was the longest period since we have records (two decades),” she stressed through his account in X.

For his part, Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, points out that although there is a recovery, there is no radical change in expectations that would suggest that growth will accelerate.

“The worst of expectations have been contained, but there is no change in mood. It means that the worst is no longer expected, but there may not be a significant dynamic ahead either,” she noted.

Odar added that the economy is generally expected to recover; However, a higher dynamic is not resumed and the growth lost compared to previous years is not recovered.

Inflation would go between 2.6% and 3% this year

Regarding inflation expectations by BCRP respondents, they remained within the target range (1% and 3%) for all the projection horizons consulted (2024, 2025 and 2026).

The CPI expected for this year is between 2.6% and 3% while for 2025 and 2026 it is between 2.5% and 3%.

For Juan Carlos Odar, it means that the base scenario of having inflation less than 3% this year is high, but in the same way, he states that inflation is expected to be above 2%, an inflation that is already aligned with the goal of BCRP.