After in 2023 the economic activity recorded its worst result in 30 years, discounting the pandemic, and contracted by 0.6%, the dissipation of climatic anomalies (in terms of intensity and duration) is leading to improved forecasts for the rebound of the gross domestic product (GDP). for this year.
Thus, BBVA Research raised its estimate from 2.0% to 2.7%, explained by the “relative political and social stability”, as well as the weak impact of El Niño Costero in the first months of the year.
“(In 2024) we would have a stronger rebound than thought three months ago, and it would be more accentuated mainly because El Niño Costero, according to the forecasts for March and April, but also what was observed in January and February, will have a less strong impact on the economy,” said Francisco Grippa, chief economist of BBVA Research in Peru.
This will lead to the sectors most impacted during 2023 having a more positive performance in 2024. In that sense, he stressed that the fishing —which fell by almost 20%— would be favored by the start of the first anchovy fishing season in the central-northern area, and if a second fishing season with a “normal” quota is added to that, this sector would grow between 17% and 18%.
In the case of the agricultural sector, which fell by 2.91% in 2023, without the complications of fertilizers for the agricultural campaign and without the threat of bird flu, would help the sector grow by 2.1%.
On the spending side, also Certain progress is expected as private investment would grow by 1.7%, for the improvement of non-mining investment; while public investment would advance by 3.0%, in line with the second year of management of the subnational authorities.
Despite this scenario, and with more controlled inflation (in the third quarter it would be closer to 2%), the BBVA Research warns that this weak economic growth would cause poverty to increase again, reaching 29.4%.
Growth in 2025 would be lower
For 2025, the estimate of economic growth is lower than the forecast made three months ago by BBVA Research. Progress of 2.9% is expected, when 3.5% was expected in December.
Tomorrow, the INEI will publish the figures for the GDP January 2024.
Source: Larepublica
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