The Economic Studies area of the BCP modified upwards its growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy for 2024 thanks to the lower risks of climate events, and placed it at 3% for the current year, above the 2% estimated last December.
According to the BCP Economic Studies Manager, Carlos Prieto, the update responds to the fact that there is now a “weak” El Niño probability, unlike previous presentations, in addition to a copper price that would remain above US$3. 75/pound.
However, I also point out that it is urgent to unblock new projects (especially in the extractive sector) to set a “higher growth floor for 2025-2026.”
“There is an oscillating recovery trend. The consumer confidence index has shown recovery and has its highest level in the last four years,” Prieto highlighted.
Along these lines, the BCP expects that the gradual recovery of non-primary GDP will provide greater dynamism to formal employment towards the second semester. Domestic demand would close the year with a growth of +3.3%, while private consumption would have a variation of +3%, leveraged by private investment of +4.5%.
Proof of this is that the import of capital goods rebounded by 18% in January, while cement consumption grew by 9% after several months of contraction.
Finally, the BCP estimates that inflation will return to the target range in 2024, and would be close to 2%. In addition, the BCRP reference rate would reach 4.5%-5% towards the second semester (today at 6.25%)
Source: Larepublica
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