“The plans have worked. Proof of this, the January and February numbers show a vigorous and recovering economy. The idea is that it can be maintained,” said Alex Contreras after his departure from the club was made official. Ministry of Economy and Finance.
This time, the numbers are not going to kill the story, but they will subtract a few soles of optimism from the words of the now former official, who assured that the non-primary GDP – with higher added value – is growing for the second consecutive month and, therefore Therefore, it is “viable” to close at 3% in 2024.
Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, recalls that the data highlighted by Contreras respond to preliminary figures subject to abrupt results: already in 2023 it was seen that, despite the high projections, the GDP never rebounded.
“Compared against punished indicators, better numbers will be seen,” he mentions in reference to the fact that, since the end of 2022, production ratios have fallen due to social protests and climate threats. Odar argues that Contreras “tried to create positive expectations” in which, curiously, was his last meeting with the media as minister.
A month ago, Contreras Miranda told La República that he was going to resign due to “the lack of transparency”, in a context where the arrival of José Arista to the MEF was rumored.
He then backed away and denied that he wanted to leave. Whatever the reason for his change of attitude, it doesn’t matter. At the closing of this note, Arista was sworn in as the new Minister of Economy. Contreras wished him success and assured that the most important thing is to regain trust and end instability.
Why hasn’t vigorous growth started yet?
The performance of two key indicators, monitored by the INEI During January, he foresees that it is far from a genuine recovery: the production of the electricity subsector – vital for the industry – would have grown 3.64%, thus recovering the north, but still far from its variation rates of up to 8. 4%, while the internal consumption of cement – a barometer of construction – continued to sink and would have ended 2023 at -11.59%.
“We must be cautious with this data. We are improving, but It does not even remotely mean that a vigorous growth process has begun.. We must have complete data to know how much we are going to rebound this year,” said former head of Sunat Luis Arias Minaya.
In their opinion, December will be negative like January, and they will be burdened mainly by the eventful year in the fishing sector, where the capture seasons were interrupted due to abnormal biological and climatic factors.
Another harmful effect for the future of the GDP It is the exhaustion of the impact of Quellaveco. According to Macroconsult, as of September, copper production excluding the Anglo American unit is 3% below its pre-pandemic level. The situation is worsened by the absence of large projects. Only the expansion of Shouxin in Ica for US$140 million. The mining GDP would barely grow 1.4% in 2024.
Arias Minaya alleges that, despite the statistical rebound to get out of the recession, not necessarily month by month, the figures will be positive; For his part, Odar considers that it is difficult to speak of a sustained recovery, and predicts that the economy will vary 2.4% in the current, far from our potential.
Limited sectoral recoveries
According to Macroconsult, agricultural GDP will rebound 2.6% this year —after falling 5.3% in 2023—. Agricultural exports fell last year for the first time in seven years.
Fishing will have its largest contraction in seven years (-19.5%) and will rebound 17.6% in the current. Meanwhile, construction activity will close 2024 with a decline of 1.6%, with the drop in the first half being deeper: -3.5%. The study predicts a rebound of 2% of GDP in this year.
Data
- Key day. Tomorrow the INEI will publish the economy data for December. It is expected that in 2023 we will have the worst decline in more than two decades, not counting the pandemic.
- Stay. Contreras led the MEF from the first day of the Boluarte Government.
Source: Larepublica
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