The savings of Peruvians grew 5.7% at the end of 2023, and managed a flow of S/10,545 million, according to Scotiabank. However, they have not yet recovered compared to the historical average of S/11,000 million—except for the pandemic—and where growth amounted to 10.0%. Meanwhile, the stock reached was S/194.3 billion.
In November, The entity reported that savings showed a slowdown, since people had to make use of those resources to face the loss of purchasing power. But the last part of the year registered progress that allows us to conclude that there will be limited growth in the coming months, according to Ricardo Ávila, senior analyst of Economic Studies at Scotiabank.
“People’s savings recovered in the last quarter of 2023. The lower balances for time deposits were offset by a recovery in savings deposits and mutual funds,” Ávila said.
Mutual funds advance
Total savings are made up of regulated and discretionary savings. Regarding the first, it covers salary accounts (savings) and compensation deposits for time of service (CTS): the sum of both has been showing falls during the last 16 months, but they have gone from -15.6% in the third quarter to -9.7% in the fourth quarter.
The balance of savings accounts contracted by -9.2%, accumulating a balance of S/99,718 million. Meanwhile, CTS deposits fell 16.9%. They went from S/17,000 million in December 2020 to S/6,600 million as of December 2023, due to the effects of the legislative measures that authorized the free disposal of these resources.
Regarding discretionary savings, made up of time deposits, mutual funds and non-pension funds, it grew by 43.7%. Term accounts reached a balance of S/53,800 million at the end of the year, driven by the high rates of return granted.
Mutual funds accelerated during 2023, growing by 20.7% and with managed assets greater than US$7 billion.
For Arturo Garciaprofessor of Finance at ESAN Graduate School of Business, the beginning of the pandemic affected the payment capacity of economic agents and, in the case of individuals, “many had to use their savings due to low income and unemployment ”, factors that slowly show a recovery since 2021.
In addition, he said that it is expected that with the BCRP interest rate (4% at the end of 2024), which will be above the inflation (3% maximum), people may be more motivated to save in term deposits and thereby increase total savings.
Term deposits will continue to shine
For Professor Arturo García, term deposits will lower their annual effective rate of return (TREA) as the reference rate of the BCRP; However, they will be in the range of 5% and 6%, which should be taken advantage of by users taking into account that inflation will reach the target range (between 1% and 3%) this first quarter. Regarding the rates in the CTS accounts, García states that they will not have significant changes this year due to the risk that Congress will approve the provision of these funds again. Let us remember that at least 3 bills have been presented with this objective.
Source: Larepublica
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