National production in November 2023 registered an advance of 0.29%, after 6 months of decline, according to the latest report from the INEI. The result was anticipated by the Minister of Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras, who highlighted a couple of days ago that this marks the beginning of the country’s economic recovery. What the official did not say is that the figure reconfirms that in the last year the economy will fall by at least 0.50%.
In the period from January to November 2023, GDP decreased by 0.57% and during the last twelve months – from December 2022 to November 2023 – a variation of -0.42% was recorded (see infographic).
In detail, it is observed that the result of the eleventh month was driven by the fishing sectors (60.96%), mining and hydrocarbons (8.04%), Government services (3.30%), other services (2.27% ), transportation (1.45%), commerce (1.30%), agriculture (1.19%) and electricity, gas and water (0.69%).
Although in the weighted GDP the sectors that have the greatest weight are mining, commerce, agriculture, among others; Experts such as economist Luis Arias Minaya highlight that the statistical effect of the development of the second season of industrial anchovy fishing boosted the November figure, especially because the processing of this resource that is converted into fishmeal and exported is counted in manufacturing.
While the director of Phase Consultores, Juan Carlos Odar, notes that the November figure without counting fishing would have reached just 0.09% and the accumulated figure for the year would be -0.52%.
It should be noted that this industrial activity was suspended on January 13, having captured a little more than 70% of the assigned quota. Taking into account that in December the companies had at least five days of voluntary stoppage due to the high presence of youth, it can be concluded that for December and January the figures will not be so encouraging.
For its part, the positive evolution of metallic mining activity was associated with the progress in copper production by the company Anglo American Quellaveco, Compañía Minera Antamina, Compañía Minera Antapaccay and Minera Las Bambas, among the main ones, according to the INEI report. .
On the other hand, the sectors that fell compared to what was reported in November 2022 were construction (-8.05%), financial and insurance (-5.25%), telecommunications (-4.47%), services provided to companies (-0.92%), manufacturing (-0.51%) and accommodation and restaurants (-0.03%).
How is December coming?
For BBVA Research there are activity indicators that show favorable performance; However, it specifies that anchovy landings decreased “significantly” that month, and to this is added that the positive impact of Quellaveco tends to dissipate. Therefore, they conclude that the Peruvian economy would have contracted again in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Tax pressure below 15%
The tax pressure (without social contributions) was 14.8% of GDP in 2023, and decreased two points of GDP compared to 2022, Arias Minaya warned.
Along these lines, he noted that the 2024 budget considers a tax pressure of 15.5% of GDP. “Clearly, it’s overrated,” he said.
At the end of 2023, tax collection plummeted by -12.3%, due to weak economic activity. This is S/10,530 million less, according to Sunat.
Source: Larepublica
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