Mutual funds would exceed S/32,973 million

In 2023, the mutual fund industry achieved a growth in its managed assets of 16.21% (reaching S/32,973 million) —according to Credicorp Capital—, influenced by the continuous reduction of reference interest rates pushed by the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) in recent months. For 2024, the scenario is favorable.

The fall in national production supports the subtraction of profitable effects, although the threat of escalation of “armed conflicts” and monetary policy decisions persist.

At a global level, according to Credicorp Capital, the rumor of “possible armed conflicts”, the deterioration of the supply chain and the El Niño phenomenon” would dent the benefits of betting on mutual funds.

In detail, conservative and highly liquid mutual funds have taken long positions in deposits and papers at higher rates than the current ones, which can assure their participants higher returns than those offered by other investment alternatives that will be affected. due to the immediate reduction in rates.

While medium-term mutual funds and those that invest in fixed income assets will benefit from the reduction in reference rates in both currencies as they become more likely. In the words of the BCRP, despite the reduction for five months in a row, they will be attentive to market changes.

In a macro approach, Credicorp specifies that Latin America can still see interesting returns in 2024, as the region presents a lower political instability relative and its assets appear to be undervalued compared to assets in other regions.

At the sector level, Credicorp emphasizes that they will take advantage of the potential growth of the sector through a less volatile scenario to provide a more predictable evolution of equity return.

Rate hike will persist in the first tranche

Even if the BCRP has reduced the reference interest rate to 6.50%, Peruvians continue to pay high interest. According to the SBS, the active interest rate rose to 15.92% on average; while the passive—what the bank you have to deposit your money—it’s 3.59%. The differential between the two is called bank spread and reaches 12.33% in soles.

The World Bank warns that Peru at a regional level is only surpassed by Brazil and slightly by Paraguay, but it integrates the hype of large-scale countries with rates that are not auspicious for their citizens and that favor banks more. According to specialists consulted by this means, rates would only normalize in the first half of the year.