Two reports released this morning by the Reuters agency show the uncertainty surrounding world oil production in 2024, a year preceded by the slowdown of the main world economies and the escalation of interest rates.
Initially, consulting firm Wood Mackenzie predicted that global oil demand will increase by almost 2 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2024, leveraged by growth in China’s economy.
The Asian nation, according to the report, will represent 25% of this increase in global demand for oil paints in the current year.
Wood Mackenzie’s global demand forecast is 103.5 BPD in 2024, and considers that most of this will occur in the second half of the year, a period in which a de-escalation of interest rates at the international level is also expected. .
For the consulting firm, crude oil demand will be above supply this year, largely due to the conflicts in the Middle East as OPEC+ insists on its supply cuts.
However, for the investment bank Barclays, Brent crude oil prices will be lower than expected in 2024 and could be around US$85, about US$8 less than in previous forecasts.
Barclays said this Thursday that the reduction in forecasts responds to “a higher starting point for inventories and a potentially longer path to normalization of OPEC reserve capacity.”
“We believe investors should weigh the risk of looser OPEC+ cohesion, but it should not be the baseline scenario,” the bank reiterated.
It should be noted that black gold futures lost more than 10% in 2023, while large inventory withdrawals did not materialize in the fourth quarter, as demand was lower than expected.
Source: Larepublica
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