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Short-term expectations are negative 33 months ago

Short-term expectations are negative 33 months ago

The indecision of Minister Alex Contreras to remain in office anticipated that same day the publication of business expectations for December, a month in which hopes of recovery of the economy in the short term rounded off 33 months in negative territory.

In detail, business expectations about the Peruvian economy in the next three months – the most important on the board – went from 38 to 41 points, while those for 12 months took off from 50 to 55. A photograph that the MEF tried to highlight the day before, but it hides a harsh reality.

“This shows that businessmen, in their vision of three months ahead, They see no prospects for improving the country’s economic situationwhich continues to deteriorate,” asserts Juan Carlos Odar, director of Phase Consultores, when referring to the BCRP survey.

Odar explains that the last positive data occurred in March 2021 (33 months ago), even before former president Pedro Castillo took office. He assures, in this sense, that Contreras’s hesitations do not contribute to reducing this uncertainty.

In the case of the expectations of the sector where each person works businessman surveyed, the three-month score progressed from 42 to 44 points, while the progress was from 51 to 57 in the 12-month period. That is to say, everyone sees with better eyes what happens in a year.

Regarding the expectations of the company itself, the businessmen surveyed kept the score at 46 points for the next three months, but increased them from 56 to 60 in the horizon of 12. Uncertainty due to the arrival of El Niño could also influence.

A different situation was seen for product demand expectations: in the short term it went from 47 to 44 points, and barely improved from 59 to 61 points in the long term. This, despite the fact that the survey was carried out in the middle of the Christmas season and on the eve of the summer campaign.

In some ways, this was also reflected in staff hiring expectations. The intention to increase the payroll among employers fell slightly from 45 to 44 points for the next quarter, and stagnated at 52 points for summer 2025.

This weak response of market In the last month of 2023 it would have also pushed investment expectations downward. Investment expectations in three months fell from 45 to 44 points, although in 12 months they still improved from 53 to 55.

December without sales

Let’s now go to the survey on the current situation of companies. In a month that, traditionally, is one of high demand for products, the business situation barely improved from 43 to 44 points. Could it have had something to do with the level of sales? Apparently, yes.

According to the businessmen surveyed, the sales situation in December fell 45 to 42 points, while production fell from 49 to 43 points. This, linked to the fact that the expected demand in the last month of 2023 advanced, languidly, from 31 to 33 points.

Not even purchase orders showed improvement compared to the previous month. In this section, the score fell from 45 to 43 points, although the days of unwanted inventories (an indicator to measure the turnover of productswhich is normally high in December) dropped, favorably, from 14 to 12.

Former Economy Minister Kurt Burneo believes that the speculation generated by Contreras should not have escalated without an official document. However, he recognizes that the “absorption of time and effort is much greater in the case of the MEF,” a portfolio where “the problems usually multiply.”

However, in addition to the political clashes that undermine business confidence, Burneo recalls that the drop in domestic consumption itself made this scenario foreseen since October, a month in which less was imported than expected.

“And on the side of consumerno one would embark on a personal loan if they are not sure of staying in their position. job”, he confers.


Mea culpa. Yesterday the MEF indicated that Peru’s growth capacity “has been significantly reduced.”

Slips. MEF announced “reforms” after updating GDP growth to almost 2% GDP 2023. Before I expected 3%.


  • -15.7% exports fell in October compared to the same month in 2022.
  • S/180 was the average ticket for Peruvians at Christmas, as estimated by the CCL. But before it went from S/300.
  • Private investment fell -6.2% year-on-year in 3Q2023.

Source: Larepublica

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