Short-term expectations for December improve, but Christmas sales disappointed

The expectations of Peruvian businessmen regarding the recovery of the economy improved for the next 3 and 12 months, but Christmas sales disappointed to the point of not foreseeing greater hiring of personnel or investments in this summer of 2024.

According to the BCRP, most expectations indicators recovered in December. In particular, expectations for the economy and the sector in 3 months improved, as well as all indicators in 12 months. Of the 18 indicators for the month, 6 are in the optimistic range.

In detail, the business expectations about the Peruvian economy In the next 3 months they went from 38 to 41 points, while those of 12 months took off from 50 to 55.

In the case of the industry expectations where each businessman surveyed works, the 3-month score progressed from 42 to 44 points, while the progress was from 51 to 57 in the 12-month period. That is to say, everyone sees with better eyes what happens in a year.

As for the expectations of the company itselfthe businessmen surveyed kept the score at 46 points for the next 3 months, but increased them from 56 to 60 in the horizon of 12. Uncertainty due to the arrival of El Niño could also influence.

A different situation was seen for the product demand expectations. Demand in the short term went from 47 to 44 points, and barely improved from 59 to 61 points in the long term. This, despite the fact that the survey was carried out in the middle of the Christmas season and on the eve of the summer campaign.

In some way, this was also reflected in the staffing expectations. The intention to increase payroll among employers fell slightly from 45 to 44 points for the next quarter, and stagnated at 52 points for summer 2025.

This weak market response in the last part of 2023 would have pushed the investment expectations also downward. Thus, investment expectations at 3 months fell from 45 to 44 points, although at 12 months they still improved from 53 to 55.

Macroeconomic Expectations: sales in December disappointed

Let’s now go to the survey on the current situation of companies for December. In a month that traditionally has high demand for products, the business situation it barely improved from 43 to 44 points. Could it have had something to do with the level of sales? Apparently, yes.

According to the businessmen surveyed, the sales situation In December it fell 45 to 42 points, while production fell from 49 to 43 points. This, linked to the fact that the expected demand In the last month of 2023 it advanced, languidly, from 31 to 33 points.

Not even the purchase orders compared to the previous month showed improvement. In this section, the score fell from 45 to 43 points, although the days of unwanted inventories (an indicator to measure product turnover, which is normally high in December) dropped favorably from 14 to 12.

It should be noted that, the day before, the Minister of Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras, ruled out his resignation from the MEF, despite the fact that in the morning he leaked to the press that it was a decision made. According to numerous specialists in the field, This lack of seriousness in the Executive will not contribute to improving the expectations of businessmen.