The Scotiabank Economic Studies Department estimated that, by November 2023, the Peruvian GDP will continue to “register negative figures, although to a lesser extent than in October.”
According to the Weekly Report of the Canadian Capital Bank, this result “would continue to be explained by the weakness of domestic demand”, particularly private investment that has been affecting sectors such as Construction, Non-Primary Manufacturing and Services.
“The above would be partially offset by the start of the anchovy season, which would have boosted the Fishing sector and, indirectly, Primary Manufacturing,” the document states.
Furthermore, Scotiabank leaves open the possibility that the PBI for December shows a positive figure, considering the favorable base effect (rebound), because the GDP for December 2022 was affected by the start of social protests and because the intense rains associated with the El Niño Phenomenon (FEN) have not yet started.
“In fact, according to the ENFEN, the probability of a FEN of “strong” intensity has decreased, with the most likely intensity now being “moderate” (see graph), which would imply a lower impact on economic activity for the first quarter of 2024. “said the bank.
Peru’s GDP fell -0.82% in October, registering an accumulated decline since January of -0.65%. Most forecasts place national production closer to -1% at the end of the year, while the BCRP estimates that annual growth of 3% will only resume in 2026.
Source: Larepublica
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