In 2024, Ecuador could grow by 1.5%, i.e. behave similarly to 2023, while the current government of Daniel Nobo Azín will live in a transition period in which there will be no room for major changes. The mentioned growth is below the average of the neighbors, who would have an improvement in their economy of 1.9 percent. This was reported by Citi Research, the research arm of Citi Corporate Banking, during a December 13 call where it presented its global forecast to 2024.

Additionally, Citi Research sees 2024 with a “cautiously optimistic” outlook for the region. The financial entity believes that 2024 will be better than 2023, although uncertainties remain at the global level. Overall, there will be a global slowdown (going from 2.6% in 2023 to 1.9% in 2024), while Latin America will maintain a growth rate of 1.9% in both 2023 and 2024.

This was explained by Ernesto Revilla, Citi’s chief economist for Latin America, in this year’s last media interview in the region.

Furthermore, 2024 is predicted to be marked by a moderate recession in the US, but a weak economy in the Eurozone. China will not achieve growth rates higher than 5%. This is in contrast to what happened a few years ago when 10% growth was generated for several years.

Furthermore, the analysis identified two factors that are decisive factors for the economies of the region, namely: on the one hand, the behavior of the Federal Reserve (FED) and its interest rates, which are expected to go down. On the other hand, a slower performance of the Chinese economy is also predicted.

Revilla indicated that the fact that the US rate is being lowered is good news for Ecuador because it makes financial conditions more flexible for the country, he said. Additionally, he argued that lower global trade due to the China issue is not greatly affecting demand for raw materials. He also shared crude oil price forecasts. Regarding WTI, which is the benchmark for Ecuador, they commented that the average price in 2024 was calculated at $71, while in 2025 it would be $67.

In addition, Esteban Tamayo, chief analyst of the economy of Colombia and Peru for Citi, commented on Ecuador that in 2024 there will be less effect of politics on the economy. For Tamayo, this year and a half of Daniel Noboa’s government will be a transitional period in which there is no time for drastic changes. He sees the possibility of approaching the IMF, and already in 2025, electoral changes are coming.

Meanwhile, Revilla, when asked how violence and drug trafficking affect the development of economies in the region, said that violence is of great concern and creates a vicious circle between the confidence of the population, investors and economic growth. Therefore, it is a problem that must be attacked so that it does not deepen.

For an expert, the market at the moment is not paying so much attention to the medium-term release, but more to the short-term yield. The issue of insecurity and violence is a concern. According to the data, he said, Latin America has 8 percent of the world’s population, but a third of the murders. The issue of drug trafficking is a factor to consider as it slows down the potential growth of Latin America, he said.