He BBVA Research has revised its growth projection for the Peruvian economy downwards. Thus, It predicts that 2023 will close at -0.4%, when the previous quarter there was still talk of growth of 0.4%. Along these lines, the 2024 figure was adjusted from 2.3% to 2%. The factors that were considered for this revaluation were the unexpected fall in the third quarter, the greater sensitivity of private spending in a complex environment and the El Niño phenomenon.
“We are seeing that in this environment the economy will contract 0.4% this year, and we have revised downward our growth forecast for the next year from 2.3% to 2%. For 2025, we expect a slightly greater rebound , once the whole issue of the phenomenon has been dispelled The boy“Once fishing production and agricultural production are normalized, we should have a slightly more pronounced impact,” explained Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Research in Peru during the presentation of the report.
It was emphasized that the performance of the productive sectors has been very bad this year due to to climatic anomalies, the rise in fertilizer prices, social conflict and a weakened environment of trust. For this reason, the third quarter closed with a drop of 1.0%, the third consecutive of the year, which for BBVA is “worrying” because it reveals a trend.
BCRP will cut the reference rate in December
Regarding the reference rate, BBVA predicts that the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) It will make a new cut in December of 25 basis points, with this, the reference rate would close 2023 at 6.75%. It is not even ruled out that the cut will be more pronounced because inflation continues its downward trend, which could place it close to the target range this year as well. For now, the projection is that it will close at 3.6%.
We are not in a recession, but we are in an “intense slowdown”
Although the issue seemed settled after the Minister of Economy and Finance, Alex Contreras, admitted that Peru is in recession, BBVA pointed out, in the presentation of its report, that the criteria to classify the situation as such are not met. . To do this, it is required that the seasonally adjusted GDP contract in two consecutive quarters, which has not happened.
“There are not two quarters of consecutive contraction. Beyond that, there is an intense deceleration. Now, when could we see a more frank recovery? I would say that starting in the second half of next year, because in the first quarter we will still have the impacts of the El Niño phenomenon,” Perea explained.
Source: Larepublica
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