Amid the government transition Ecuador is going through, just before new lawmakers take over the new National Assembly and then new President Daniel Noboa Azín arrives in Carondelet, the country’s risk is reaching its highest level in three years.

The Central Bank of Ecuador reported that the country risk reached 2054 points on Wednesday, November 15, 2023.

This level is the highest since Ecuador faced the coronavirus pandemic, when this indicator – measured by JP Morgan, which assesses the country’s chances of paying off its debts – reached 6,063 points on March 23, 2020 and remained at high levels until September 9. that year. (2,852 points), then stabilized between 900 and 1,000 points, according to historical data from the Central Bank.

Meanwhile, on the morning of the 17th, the central bank released a new country risk indicator for November 16, which was set at 2,023 points, slightly lower.

Country risk increased after the election victory of Daniel Nobo Azín, among other factors due to statements alluding to a possible debt moratorium in 2026 or 2027, in case multilaterals do not support the new government with resources. In addition, markets are concerned about falling crude oil prices, and there is nervousness about the latest political alliances, particularly with Correismo, who has a tarnished reputation in markets for declaring a moratorium and buying debt, economic experts said.