Country risk, which has remained at the threshold of 1,700 points since Daniel Noboa Azín won the elections on October 15, 2023, saw an escalation again as the president-elect began to talk about the difficult fiscal situation his government will face. Thus, this indicator exceeded 1,800 points on Tuesday, and 1,900 on Wednesday to reach 1,993 points this Thursday, November 9.

This week, this indicator, which measures the market’s perception of whether a country will repay its foreign debts, recorded an increase of more than 240 points.

Country risk increased by 111 points in one day and is approaching 2000 points

This is attributed to the president-elect’s announcements this week during his tour of the United States and upon his return to the country.

Tell the multilateral organizations that the Ecuadorian economy could collapse if they don’t provide a bridge loan default for 2026 and 2027 is one of the causes of this new escalation of country risk for the president of the Guayaquil Economic Circle, Larry Yumibanda.

And he adds to the concerns of the risk assessment agency the latest statements about the fiscal situation “which it considers very difficult and that it will take very harsh measures, although it did not say what those measures are.” but Yumibanda indicates that the fiscal deficit that Daniel Noboa’s government will have to face by 2024 will be around $5.5 billion. Added to that is next year’s debt amortization of $2.5 billion, which is why he estimates he will need approximately $8 billion in financing.

Low country risk after Daniel Noboa’s triumph, a ‘tepid’ reaction from the international market, which remains nervous about the 2025 elections.

The intensity of the El Niño phenomenon is moderate to low, but if the intensity is high, the required financing is expected to be 10,000 million dollars to cover the increase in social spending, infrastructure and others due to this climatic event.

He also remembers that Noboa will have up to 90 days to present a proforma budget “and automatically there are difficulties in getting that financing, which is why the risk assessment agencies – which are constantly monitoring the situation in Ecuador – see that it is running out of resources to continue.” fulfilling obligations related to external and internal debt.”