Economic agents predict that the dollar would close the year at S/3.80

In the last survey of macroeconomic expectations carried out by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), economic analysts, representatives of the financial system and non-financial companies.projections were revised upwards again for the dollar at the end of the year (see chart).

In this way, the US currency is now expected to close 2023 with a value of S/3.80. Before the estimate was S/3.75. Likewise, the 12-month exchange rate expectation increased from S/3.77 to S/3.82, according to the monetary entity’s survey.

Furthermore, the forecasts of these economic agents for the greenback at the end of 2024 are between S/3.80 and S/3.85, while for the year 2025 they range between S/3.80 and S/3.98.

It should be noted that these results represent the third consecutive increase in the BCRP survey projections.

In August, the forecasts fluctuated between S/3.70 and S/3.73, while now everyone agrees on an increase close to S/3.80.

Volatility

The trend of the dollar remains constantly changing.

Although in October the currency reached its highest value since February of this year, even reaching S/3,828 on October 6, in the first days of November the greenback has traded at its lowest level since September.

Thus, on Thursday, November 2, the dollar fell to S/3.7430, and by Friday the 3rd it registered a decrease of -0.72%, ending the first week of the penultimate month of 2023 at S/3.7430.

Omar Azañedo, economist and CEO of Noncash, explains that this decline in the greenback is due to the possibility announced by the US Federal Reserve (FED) of keeping reference rates high or increasing them.

This suggests that the US economic outlook would have deteriorated, leading to the depreciation of the currency against those of other regions.

External factors

However, it is expected that this decrease will be temporary and that an upward trend will be observed again in December.

This is considering the persistence of the global economic crisis and a context of inflation, which continues to lead several central banks in different countries to maintain their high reference rates. Likewise, the high costs of food and the rise in international transportation could also affect and cause a rebound in the North American currency.

“Added to this is the conflict in Europe between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the new confrontation between Israel and Palestine, which has caused an increase in fuel prices,” Azañedo added for La República.”

Keys

Recommendations. Experts advise that if the dollar falls below S/3.70 Take the opportunity to purchase it to cover your rent or debts. Likewise, you should avoid speculating on increases or falls in the exchange rate since financial markets have high volatility.

Dollar would not rise or fall

Approach. Enrique Díaz, president of the consulting firm MC&F

He dollar It is an international currency, Peru adopts it for reasons of value protection. Therefore, it is due to mostly external and rarely internal impacts. Today everyone is looking at when the US finishes controlling inflation and begins to reactivate. In Peru, the influence is due to political factors, every time there is a crisis the dollar skyrockets, but now we are in a moment of tense calm. However, we are going through a period of global inflation, and there is no sign of a recovery in the US either. The expectation is that the dollar will remain high, but it will not skyrocket or have an abrupt fall. It will continue around the current figure.