Alfonso Bustamante, president of one of the most powerful unions in the country, clarifies that the recession is due to long-standing political instability that does not reach the deactivation of the JNJ. He hopes for measures to reactivate agriculture and a profitable anchovy season, but he does not see necessary changes in the cabinet.
-The recession has arrived: how is business confidence?
-It is the consequence not only of the actions now, but of what we have experienced in six years. The recession comes due to lack of investment and consumption. If there is no private investment, there is no growth, and we see that it has fallen by 7%. The effect reached us from pandemicthe six presidents in five years, political instability, social violence… are elements that create the perfect storm to prevent private investment from growing.
-Where was the blow worst?
-Two sectors that were very affected were agriculture and fishing. Agriculture lost between 30% and 50% of the value of its campaigns. Peru has eight million hectares, we are talking about more than half of the population depending on this and they have been affected. Fishing also lost a complete season, fortunately a campaign has now opened and it must be measured very well. The fleet that was idle is put to work, thousands of families depend on it.
-Doesn’t the MEF seek to save 0% of GDP in 2023 at the expense of the sea?
-No. What’s more, we have been insisting that the fleet go out to fish for the new species that appeared with the warm water, which has a double effect: you put the economy to work and make the fish on the table cheaper. That helps control inflation. Now what Imarpe declared that the anchovy I understand that, from conversations we have had with the minister, it is due to confirmation of the size.
-What happened to agriculture?
-It’s a tragedy. We do not have to wait for the December rains to see the damage caused by low productivity. On the coast – especially to the north -, the opportunity to work was lost because there is nothing to harvest. It is necessary to rethink the canceled promotional measures. Thousands of companies migrated to the traditional sector or informality and hundreds of thousands of workers lost the protection of the sector, without bonuses or social security.
-What does Confiep propose?
-It has to be sectoral. In fishing it is the second season; in agriculture, resume the agricultural promotion regime. That is to unlink the Beta bonus from the RMV, leaving it as a fixed amount, and returning to the elements of the law that made employment grow in the enormous way that we have today. In mining, which is the great driving force of the economy, we are proposing a simplification of administrative processes. He Minem has offered the single window to shorten permitting processes that extend projects by seven years, during which time their economic meaning is lost.
-And for the little ones?
-When we think about private investment, we think about mega companies; But, in addition to them, the large component is the micro and small, which is also part and has been left without capital due to not being able to go out to work and the poor attention to the pandemic and violence, today aggravated by El Niño.
-The MTPE has already announced that it will not raise the RMV.
-We share that This is not the time to increase the minimum wage. What’s more, we come from a very good meeting with Minister Maurate, we told him that the real focus, with or without recession, is training and resuming the Employment Center. The RMV It mainly affects small businesses, which are torn between informality and formality. It is nonsense and disincentive.
-Pension reform. Congress or Executive?
-There is a good part in the MEF proposal that provides a guaranteed minimum pension, but we must work carefully where the funds come from. The reform must promote the activation of individual capitalization systems to reduce the subsidy that the State would make. We have to review it more, but we have seen some favorable components.
-With the recession confirmed, should the cabinet continue?
-I think it is not an issue for ministers. Some are new, but with the majority in Confiep we can work. They are receptive to what we can propose regarding the country’s common objective, which is to get out of the recession quickly. And we all agree that the only way is to encourage private investment.
-Doesn’t instability in the JNJ delay accession to the OECD?
-No. I think the issue of OECD and Congress must be approached with great responsibility. No body, much less one of justice that has not been elected by the people, can be exempt from oversight for any reason. The law says that the oversight of the National Board of Justice comes from Congress. Now, if they are abusing their powers, it is up to them to determine. The only thing we need as a country is legal predictability and for laws and trials to be fast.
Source: Larepublica
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