He exchange rate of the dollar has consolidated upwards in the tenth month of the year. So far this month, it has experienced an increase of 1.87%, starting at S/3.7970 on October 1 and reaching a price of S/3.8680 yesterday, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
In accordance with Javier Pinedageneral manager of Billexthe current behavior of the dollar is due to the decision of the BCRP to reduce the interest rate by 0.25 basis points per month in its last two meetings. While the Federal Reserve of USA. It keeps its rates stable and there is even the possibility that it will continue raising them in the coming months.
“So, the differential in rates in favor of the Peruvian currency decreases, therefore, the spread as well, and that makes it no longer so interesting or so attractive to invest in bonds in soles,” he comments.
Which sectors does the rise in the exchange rate favor?
In companies dedicated to foreign trade, those oriented to export are the ones that benefit from a higher dollar price. “Companies that sell in dollars or that have an export business receive foreign currency in dollars, therefore, they benefit,” notes Pineda.
The opposite occurs with those companies that have to pay their obligations in dollars or with importing businesses, in which a “high dollar goes against their interests.”
Would the price of chicken and eggs rise?
Among the main inputs that Peruvian companies import are wheat, agricultural fertilizers, as well as corn and soybeans for bird feed. However, Pineda points out that fluctuations in the price of the dollar should not have significant impacts on these products, given that their supply has normalized after the pandemic and events related to the war in Ukraine.
Consequently, there would be no increases in the prices of chicken, eggs or production costs in the agricultural sector.
How does the rise of the dollar affect the construction sector?
In Pineda’s opinion, in the construction and real estate sector, the rise of the dollar can impact the costs of companies that purchase inputs in foreign currency.
This could result in an increase in home prices or the adoption of dollar sales by companies.
Would it affect the price of fuel?
Pineda indicated that the price of fuel would not be strongly affected by the exchange rate fluctuation, since this sector has its own market dynamics.
What would be the exchange rate trend?
According to Pineda, the trend of the dollar will continue with a slight increase due to the decrease in the reference interest rate. In that sense, the dollar could be in a range between S/3.85 and S/3.90 soles towards the end of the year, very close to current levels.
Source: Larepublica
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