BBVA Research confirmed the downward bias that the growth of the Peruvian economy would have in 2023, a forecast that currently reaches 0.4% of GDP, according to the research platform.
BBVA Research’s Macroeconomic Analysis indicated that, by productive sectors, the non-primary component of GDP contracted 1.9%, highlighting the decline in the construction sector due to lower private and public activity and non-primary manufacturing, particularly that linked to production of consumer and intermediate goods.
On the other hand, the primary component of GDP registered a growth of 4.5%, highlighting in the positive the progress of the Fishing sector (and primary Manufacturing) due to the landings recorded during the exploratory fishing that was carried out in August as part of the first season of anchovy capture in the north-central area, as well as the increased mining production.
According to the report, the available indicators point, on balance, to activity in September remaining weak. The growth of electricity production lost dynamism and the high-frequency indicators of private consumption and investment prepared by BBVA Research continue to decline. By contrast, public investment expanded modestly.
“The weakness that activity continues to show in the third quarter and sectoral trends reinforce the downward bias of our growth forecast for 2023, currently at 0.4%,” the report states.
In addition, BBVA Research reports that the decrease in inflation, the beginning of the monetary normalization cycle, and an expected acceleration of public spending aimed at mitigating the impacts of El Niño at the beginning of 2024 will provide some support to domestic demand in what remains of the year.
However, the outlook for climatological anomalies remains complicated. Furthermore, Quellaveco’s positive statistical momentum (low year-on-year comparison base) will decrease from now on given that its production has been recorded since September of last year. And to this is added that business confidence cannot recover.
Source: Larepublica
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