Macroconsult: GDP would reach -0.3% without a second industrial fishing season

Macroconsult: GDP would reach -0.3% without a second industrial fishing season

Fishing activity is heading towards its lowest level in 20 years. The weather conditions have not been optimal for the sector this 2023, so the Ministry of Production (Produce) canceled the first industrial anchovy fishing season – which usually takes place between April and July -, in order to protect the sustainability of the species; Likewise, the second season – which runs from November to January – is also at risk.

GDP would reach -0.2% at the end of the year considering that a 45-day fishing window is authorized; however, If this is not developed, the GDP would reach -0.3%, according to the consulting firm Macroconsult. What is sought with this fishing opening is to capture 1.2 million metric tons (MT) of anchovy, produce 300,000 MT of fish meal and 31,000 MT of fish oil, in such a way that it can be exported to the US. $792 million.

“What this 45-day window does is minimize the losses, because if we look at the absolute numbers, US$800 million of exports cannot compensate for the falls that have already occurred in the first semester; that is, “The year is going to be totally negative for the sector, but this window would make it possible to minimize losses.”said Elmer Cuba, partner of the consulting firm, during the presentation of the report prepared for the National Fisheries Society (SNP).

In addition, Macroconsult specified that the fishing GDP would close the year with a drop of almost 40%, compared to its peak in 2021, when it reached 9.8%, this in line with the drop in anchovy landings by 70%. However, if it is confirmed that the second season is also cancelled, it could reach -50%.

What does the opening of the second anchovy fishing season depend on?

The first season was not authorized because the exploratory fishing carried out by the Institute of the Sea of ​​Peru (Imarpe) They resulted in a high incidence of juveniles of around 80%. For a second season to take place, This entity must provide a technical report with recommendations that indicate the status of the resource and that the conditions exist for its sustainable capture. In this way, Produce will make the final decision.

Imarpe has already completed the cruise to evaluate the reproductive condition of the resource in the north-central area, and has begun a second cruise to learn about the conditions of the biomass. Then the start of exploratory fishing should proceed, which provides more exact information on the status of the anchovy, thereby evaluating whether its capture can be developed at industrial levels.

Results of the cancellation of the first season

In the first part of the year, 2.4 million MT of anchovy were not landed, which produces 578,000 MT of fishmeal and 60,000 MT of fish oil, for which US$1.4 billion in exports were lost. In turn, this led to the loss of 1,500 jobs per month and S/140 million in wage bill, as well as S/2.6 billion in purchases in the value chain, according to Macroconsult.

Source: Larepublica

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