BCRP: GDP growth of 0.9% for this year would have a downward bias

The greatest impact of the phenomenon of The boy in the national economy and the deterioration of business confidence has caused the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) to begin to reevaluate its growth projection of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for this year, which is located at 0.9 %. However, this figure could be lower because the assumptions contemplated for said forecasts are not occurring.

“The effect of The boy and the blockages part, but above all The boy, has been affecting the economy to a greater extent. Based on this information, it is seen that business confidence is not recovering and rather there has been a deterioration in the month of September, which means that the forecasts for GDP growth would have a downward bias,” explained Adrián Armas. , central manager of Economic Studies of the BCRP, during the presentation of the October monetary program.

According to the information analyzed by the BCRP, August GDP would be lower than the 1.3% previously projected by the monetary authority. Likewise, the impact of The boy It would already be affecting the agricultural sector, which registered a 10% drop in formal private jobs in the eighth month of the year.

“The indicators show that the third quarter would be less than initially expected. A greater effect of the phenomenon is being seen The boy. The data on jobs in the formal sector was published and a reduction in jobs has been seen in the agricultural sector. We are seeing that El Niño is also affecting these sectors. We are also seeing greater inventory deaccumulation. We would have the projections for the next inflation report, but the bias is downward,” Armas said.

Finally, the monetary entity specified that business confidence in a three-month horizon is the one that has deteriorated the mostwhich explains the uncertainty that businessmen perceive towards the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.