Unlike what they expect from the Central Reserve Bank (BCRP) and the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), Macroconsult projects that GDP also fell in the third quarter.
Elmer Cuba, partner of Macroconsulttold La República that we are just realizing the effects of droughts, the lack of urea and climate threats that we inherited from 2022, which are impacting fishing and agricultural production indicators.
A separate case, the political tension seen at the beginning of 2023, which resulted in the closure of roads, affected construction – he adds – which in the previous 2 years “achieved a historical record” due to the release of AFP savings.
“The political issue is over, El Niño is already happening (…) The third quarter is going to be slightly negative, but less than what we saw so far this year. And we expect the fourth quarter to enter positive territory. We will remain slightly better in the second semester than in the first, but at much lower levels. “That takes you to the negative of the year.”he commented to La República.
It should be added that Macroconsult expects Peruvian GDP to decrease 0.2% this year; while the MEF and the BCRP forecast 1.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
Source: Larepublica
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