In harmony with multilateral and local entities, BBVA Research They lowered their estimate of Peruvian GDP growth for 2023 to 0.4% — previously they expected the variation to be 1.6% —.
The deterioration of the product is explained by the “more sustained” weakness of private spending and the lower GDP expansion of China – one of our strongest strategic partners -. Added to this is the -0.5% of the economy in the second quarter and the threat of the El Niño Phenomenon.
Low economic growth will raise monetary poverty from 27.5% to 28.9% and 29.2% of the population by 2023 and 2024, respectively. There will be 9.8 million Peruvians in poverty at the end of the current year.
And, regarding the future of the economy for the third and fourth quarters, they differ from what the BCRP expects (2% and 4%, respectively).
“In August things are not looking good. If there is growth it will be relatively low (…) In the third quarter we see it positively with a range between 0% and 0.5% but it is incipient and somewhat more so in the fourth quarter . The semester would close around 1%,” commented Hugo Perea, chief economist at BBVA Research.
Finally, Perea pointed out that Private investment would grow 1.6% next year but “due to a base effect” since this will end in a negative way. Its recovery will be due to the continuity of mega projects such as the Port of Chancay, the Jorge Chávez Airport and Line 2. “It will not be linked to mining projects. There (private investment) is still negative,” he commented.
Source: Larepublica
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