The plan to improve the octane number of extra and ecopais gasoline in Ecuador, to raise it from 85 octane to 87 octane, which was expected in September, remains in doubt, after the market verified that the calculations of the International Trade Authority of Petroecuador and which approved by the Ministry of Energy were not correct. It is about the fact that both entities planned to introduce RON 85 gasoline instead of RON 80 gasoline, based on this gasoline with a better octane number, in order to make a mixture of higher quality. The hypothesis they had, but criticized by experts, was that 85 RON would not cost more than 80 RON.

Based on that hypothesis, they made announcements. The international trade manager, Reynaldo Armijos, assured in July that the plan was already 80 percent advanced and that the increase in octane number would not create more costs or higher subsidies. Meanwhile, Minister Fernando Santos hinted that sales will begin in September and confirmed that they will not be more expensive.

However, in mid-August, a tender was held to test prices and it turned out that the best octane fuel is logically more expensive.

Only Trafigura responded to the tender announced for August 15 for the import of 2,360,000 barrels of oil at 80 or 85 lei. The offer for RON 85 was $6.76 per barrel more expensive than RON 80. Thus, RON 80 had a difference of -$1.12 per barrel and RON 85 had a difference of +$5.64 per barrel. Both are $0.16 cents off. In this regard, Petroecuador has informed that between September and December of this year, two types of gasoline will be imported. The first, RON 80 with a total volume of 2,360,000 barrels, which will be delivered in eight deliveries of 295,000 barrels each. This is based on the award of Trafigura Pte. Ltd., which offered the best differential at -$1.12 per barrel. The second, RON 95 (super gasoline), for a total of 3,835,000 barrels. This last contract was awarded to Tartan Oil Llc., which presented a difference of +$12.69 per barrel.

Regarding the failed improvement of the octane number of regular gasoline in Ecuador, Darío Dávalos, an energy analyst, believes that Petroecuador should not have offered this octane change, which was positively evaluated for its contribution to the environment, without first studying the international behavior of gasoline prices. For this, the company has two fairly reliable sources of information, such as Platts and Argus, he says. He also explained that in the initiative to replace lower octane gasoline with a higher one, the price will undoubtedly be different, due to the quality. He also commented that Petroecuador could possibly continue the initiative if the price of gasoline falls, but assures that it is not certain that these prices will fall in the coming months.

He explained that in August, the price of regular gasoline in the United States ranged between $3.60 and $3.81 per gallon. Among the causes of the behavior of gasoline prices are: the reduction of oil production in Saudi Arabia and OPEC, which will be in effect until 2024. In addition, gasoline stocks in the US are low. Entering refinery maintenance and weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are also contributing to the increase.

On the same topic, Oswaldo Erazo, executive secretary of the Chamber of Petroleum Products Distributors (Camddepe), assures that unfortunately this initiative to increase the octane number is becoming another unfulfilled offer. He reminded that, as a union, they had already indicated that by increasing the octane number and keeping the price, the subsidy would increase, but the Government insisted that the price would not increase. “Months later they realize the price is going to go up,” he said. In any case, Erazo says that it would be possible to improve the octane rating of the fuel, but at a higher cost and therefore a higher subsidy.