A month after the drought in the Amazon region, which means a drop in production in the country’s main hydroelectric plants, voices like those of energy analyst and professor Fernando Salinas are heard who are worried about possible power outages and colloquially warn that “you have to start thinking about buying candles”. But the energy minister, Fernando Santos Alvite, assures that there are alternatives and is optimistic that the problem of the dry season – hydrological low levels from October 2023 to March 2024 – will be overcome without major complications: “You won’t have to buy candles,” he replies.
But what and how sustainable are the alternatives that the Government is considering?
The national electricity operator – Cenace, according to Santos, currently has two planned exits. The first would be the import of 50 million cubic feet of gas to reach the peak production of Termogás Machal, but also to additionally include more production through the plant with an installed capacity of 465 MW. This would work with fuel oil 4 and 6. The possible sale of energy from Colombia is currently completely excluded.
However, the possibility of importing gas for Termogás Machala to produce at least 180 MW (it currently produces only 50 MW) depends on several factors.
The minister says that it is currently still being analyzed whether the Campo Amistad platform, which receives gas from production wells, can be connected to a ship that brings imported gas. For that, an international coach will come and define it in the coming days. In the event that the technician issues a report showing that the import process can be carried out, a tender will be issued immediately and in a month or a month and a half, the ship could already be supplying gas to Termogás Machala.
For Santos, what must be determined is whether it is possible to connect the ship’s hose to the Campo Amistad platform. According to the minister, the main technical problem that would exist, as reported by Petroecuador, is that the mixing of imported gas with that taken from the wells would create contamination of the imported gas, which is already clean. This question “would be difficult to solve”, he admits.
In addition, he comments that the eventual import of gas through this platform will not affect the tender for the said field, which is currently underway. He clarifies that imports would only be carried out during the dry season and that later the expected higher national production of natural gas from this offshore gas block would be given priority. “As the gas produced at Campo Amistad comes out, the level of imports will decrease because – for economic reasons – it is better to produce locally than to import. It will only be imported during the dry season, it is not a permanent contract with this ship,” says Santos. And he assures that importing gas for a few months, although more expensive than long-term contracts, is always cheaper than diesel production.
Eleven companies continue in the race for the Campo Amistad tender
In any case, if the technician ultimately feels that this is not possible, then this plan should be rejected and other options should be sought.
Santos assures that it is necessary for Termogás Machala to work and therefore if the gas does not work, diesel will have to be imported, which will be very expensive (part would be imported diesel and part would be local diesel).
Regarding the need for the production of 465 MW, indicated by Cenace, the minister explained that the Ecuadorian Electric Corporation (Celec) already has the terms of the offer ready for additional production, which can be through ships docking in the Guayaquil Bay area, near the locks. But also through ground equipment, because there are companies that have offered that possibility.
At the same time, the Minister reports that Celec is repairing the thermal generator park and that in the coming weeks the 100 MW Termoesmeraldas plant will be ready and the second plant will be delivered from Los Ríos.
Nevertheless, Fernando Salinas believes that the next dry season will occur in a complex energy scenario and does not rule out rationing in the supply of electricity, which would mean a real “blow” to the economy.
Salinas claims that during this and the previous government, nothing was done to expand the production park. There were also no clear signs for private investment and there was an insistence on criticizing the shortcomings registered in the works, but no progress was made in solving these problems. “How much could a hydropower plant like Toachi Pilatón contribute if it was completed in these six years? How much could the Termogás Machala thermal power plant produce if it had all its natural gas supply to operate at full capacity?
He criticizes that the tender for Campo Amistad was postponed many times, as a result of which the Termogás Machala plant was operating at only a third of its capacity, and was even forced to produce with diesel as fuel, a fact that is terribly expensive.
There is currently uncertainty about the degree of drought the dry season will represent. While some experts believe that it will be more aggressive, since it is correlated with the aggressiveness that El Niño phenomenonfrom the Secretariat of Risk, it is indicated that both phenomena follow separate lines.
‘There is a 99% chance of El Niño conditions this quarter’
On this topic, Rodrigo Rosero, the main undersecretary of the Secretariat for Risks, explains that the phenomenon of El Niño is present and affects the western mountain range, because the rest of the territory is limited by the Andes mountains, which does not allow the May rains to reach the eastern region.
Currently, the Secretariat is working in coordination with the respective Decentralized Autonomous Governments (GAD) in 143 potentially affected cantons located between 0 and 1,500 meters above sea level.
Rosero explains that collapsed bridges, flooded cities, and displacement of land masses are expected. El Niño would occur from the end of September 2023 until May or June or July 2024. A yellow alert has been declared in 17 provinces.
On the other side of the coin, the provinces that will not be affected are precisely the five Amazons and Tungurahu. The Amazon provinces where the largest hydropower plants are located, such as the Coca Codo Sinclair and the Pauta they produce, enter a phase of low hydrology or dry season from October to March.
In this sense, according to Roser, the Ministry of Energy has the responsibility to guarantee electricity at the national level.
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Source: Eluniverso
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
