After the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) reduced its GDP growth estimate for 2023 from 2.5% to 1.1%, the Fiscal Council He assured that this reading is reasonable and considers maintaining a cautious position on the future of national production.
Through a statement, The CF recognized that the 1.1% forecast by the MEF maintains “clear downward risks”, and with respect to the 3.0% expected by 2024, they allege that “it will be challenging” due to the materialization of threats such as the El Phenomenon Childthe permanence of the expectations of economic agents in the pessimistic range that would affect private investment and new social conflicts that would overshadow mining production or trade.
In addition, in the medium term the Fiscal Council estimates that the potential growth of the Peruvian economy is close to 2.6%.
On the other hand, the CF warns that the fiscal deficit projections “coincide with the limits established by the current fiscal rule throughout the convergence trajectory, which inherently leads to increasing the risk of non-compliance with said rule.”
And such risk is “more latent” taking into account that the calculations of tax revenue They are based on assumptions of GDP growth above the potential expected by the CF and of prices of commodities remaining “historically high”.
“The CF believes that the probability of breaching the fiscal deficit rule in the years 2023 and 2024 is not negligible given the prospects of lower short-term growth and a broad set of latent fiscal risks, detailed in the MMM itself,” they said.
Source: Larepublica
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