Surprise is a word that has been repeated tirelessly since the evening of the presidential election. Yes, it was the surprise that led to the second place of Daniel Noboa, a candidate who did not appear in the first places in most polls and who did not appear on the radars of political observers. Only one or two polling firms noticed his rise in the final days of the campaign, but an absurd ban on the publication of results prevented the electorate from knowing the development of the competition. Confusion in the face of the unexpected led to the testing of a wide variety of hypotheses. They alluded to the effect of the assassination of Fernando Villavicenci (without asking why Nobo and not some other candidate), to the youth vote (with a sophisticated distinction between millennials, generations Z or Y and as many classifications as the imagination can fit), to the performance in the debate (whose merit would be to avoid conflict, it is possible to say, to avoid debate) and to his recent figuration in politics (an outsider who did not notice his insider condition during his time in the Assembly). The use of donations is only marginally considered in a campaign that has a family brand.

These are proposals at the political level of the government plan of candidate Daniel Noboa

In short, regardless of the cause, the truth is that, apart from the peculiarities of each individual case, the result has put us in a scenario very similar to that of the last two presidential elections. Again, it will be necessary to choose between the person appointed by the shepherd of the sheep and the billionaire businessman. If we stick to these experiences, we can assume that the confrontation will be very strong, since the dilemma of correísmo and anti-correísmo is again on the table. It is a dispute that exceeds the will of the people, especially the surprise candidate who has persisted in wanting to avoid it. In a few days it will be clear that it is impossible to ignore it, because correísmo is a political-social phenomenon rooted in an important part of society. His state of sheep, accepted and justified by the pastor and his followers, cannot be faced only with a state program or technical and technocratic offers. There is no doubt that they will choose between two models of government and, above all, between two economic models, but the vote of a large part of voters in this regard is not defined by rational calculation, but by emotional urges. Following charismatic leaders finds its explanation in a complex field of feelings.

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The reaction to these phenomena is also emotional, which was shown in 2021 by all the electorate who turned to Lasso to bridge the 13 points that separated him from Arauz and place himself five points above. In total, assuming that each finalist would have kept his vote from the first round, about 43% of the votes are disputed, mainly those that went to the memory of Villavicencio and those captured by Jan Topic and Otto Sonnenholzner (about 38%). They are unevenly distributed throughout the provinces, which will require very clever campaign design on both sides. In the end, as befits a system without parties and the persistent phenomenon of personalism, the decision will be left to the mercy of emotions. (OR)