Poverty would reach a third of Peruvians this year

A tangible effect of the economic weakening forecast for this year will be the increase in the number of poor Peruvians: a GDP variation close to 1.5% and with a strong downward bias, in a context in which 9.1 million compatriots (27.5% of the population) closed 2022 affected by the lack of income, that is, the monetary poverty.

Hugo Pereachief economist at BBVA Research, maintains that for the second consecutive year poverty would rise, approaching the peak of 30.1% of the population (9.8 million people) that left 2020 —after the arrival of COVID-19—, since, within the projection of 1.6% of GDP, they expect monetary poverty to rise to 28.6%.

“Eventually, weather anomalies will be greater, and they are materializing in sectors such as agriculture. We expect in a scenario of 1.6% of GDP that poverty will rise this year by one percentage point (compared to the previous one) ”, he told La República. He also assured that, if his estimates of the national productive future contract, the poverty ratio would rise.

The route to follow

Caroline Trivelliformer head of the Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion (Midis), warns that in this model, when growth is low, “poverty alone is not reduced”, so it is necessary for the Government to accompany poor families, especially those extreme poor.

Faced with the threat of El Niño, he asks not only to attend to families for a few days with blankets, food and tents once the misfortune has occurred, but also to target them to monitor and promote their development. The bond strategy, at this time, would not be as wise, considering that it does not reach those who are really suffering from climate shocks.

For his part, Silvana Vargasalso former owner of Midis, exhorts take on a strategy with a sense of urgency to alleviate poverty according to the needs of the population. These alternatives are: territorializing the response with regional and local governments because “unique recipes are not going to work for us”, prioritizing the food dimension in times of El Niño, and the activation of spaces for intervention from civil society “to face the poverty collectively among citizens” because there is no room to wait “for a government concerned with other issues.”

Finally, Perea recommends improving the business climate, giving investors more confidence and reducing red tape, as well as strengthening state institutions because “growth (of GDP) is not auspicious.”

1 in 3 Peruvians is vulnerable

According to INEI data, 10.7 million citizens are in a situation of vulnerability, that is, 32.3% of the population is at risk of falling into poverty at any time.

recently, the Private Council of Competitiveness He assured that, if an annual rate of 2% of GDP was maintained, it would take 28 years to reduce poverty to 20% (pre-pandemic level).

reactions

Carolina Trivelli, former Minister of Development and Social Inclusion

“When growth is low, poverty alone is not reduced. A program is urgently needed so that, after a natural disaster, families are accompanied to recover their sources of income”.

Hugo Perea, economist at BBVA Research

“We have a rate of 1.6% and there are risk factors that materialized. with this scenario we estimate that poverty would rise this year at 1 point. We must improve the business climate and give more confidence”.