After the dollar had a sustained decline, which led it to even fall below S/3.60 in previous weeks, it has recently experienced an upward trend that has placed it above the S/3.70 mark.
Despite having closed yesterday at S/3.7110, reflecting a decrease of 0.22% compared to Thursday’s close, this figure still remains 1.81% above the S/3.6450 registered in the day of August 1 (see infographic), according to official data from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
Factors driving the rise
According to Javier Pineda, general manager of Billex, the upward trend has been driven by a combination of internal and external factors that have influenced the price of the dollar in relation to the Peruvian sol.
According to the expert, in the external sphere, there is a perception of strength in the United States economy. This is because the Federal Reserve (Fed) has reaffirmed its commitment to fight inflation and maintain, or even raise, interest rates.
On the other hand, it indicates that the weakening of the Chinese economy is a factor to consider, since it has grown around 0.8% quarter-on-quarter from April to June of this year.
The main economic players expect the dollar to close 2023 at S/3.70. Photo: diffusion
At the local level, Pineda points out that, unlike the Fed, the BCRP You are facing a particular situation, in which you should consider lowering your interest rates.
The eventual cut by the monetary authority creates a favorable scenario for upward pressure on the exchange ratesays Pineda.
Expectation at the end of 2023
In Pineda’s opinion, the situation at the national level could become even more complicated due to the forecast of an El Niño phenomenon.
Although its effects are expected to be moderate, the expert maintains that they could have an impact on the fiscal deficit, which would result in an increase in the exchange rate.
Given these circumstances, Pineda projects that the dollar It could be in a range of S/3.75 to S/3.80 by the end of the year.
The data
Forecasts. The main economic players expect the dollar to close 2023 at S/3.70, according to the latest business expectations survey of the BCRP. For 2024, a price of between S/3.71 and S/3.78 is expected.
Infographic The Republic
Source: Larepublica
Alia is a professional author and journalist, working at 247 news agency. She writes on various topics from economy news to general interest pieces, providing readers with relevant and informative content. With years of experience, she brings a unique perspective and in-depth analysis to her work.
