Potato production would decrease by more than 481,000 tons this year

The agricultural sector, after having overcome the fertilizer crisis, finds itself in an even more challenging scenario due to the imminent arrival of the El Niño phenomenon.

Despite the optimism of farmers who anticipate a 6.5% increase in their crops this agricultural season, some crops could experience a significant reduction in production, according to the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (Midagri).

According to the estimates of said ministry, this year the production of potatoes, the Peru’s main transitory crop, would fall by 8% to 5.5 million tons. This means a reduction of 481,682 tons compared to the volume harvested in 2022.

While in rice, the second most important cropthe expected decrease is 2.5%, reaching 3.3 million tons, which is equivalent to a decrease of 86,234 tons less than the previous year.

Quinoa production is also forecast to fall by 16% or 18,140 tons, starchy corn (-10.5%) and corn corn (10.5%).

In accordance with Christian GarayCEO of Statistics, Monitoring and Evaluation of Policies Midagri, the negative performance in most of these crops is due to the fact that they grow in dry conditions and, therefore, depend on rain, which makes them particularly susceptible to periods of drought.

possible food crisis

Throughout history, the El Niño phenomenon (FEN) has significantly affected agricultural activity. Examples are the episodes registered in 1998 and 2017, which reduced the growth of the sector to 3.6% and 3.4%, respectively.

In line with it, Anaximander RojasPresident of Conveagruspoints out that this year as a result of the FEN the reduction in the sector’s productivity could be accentuated if the necessary precautions are not taken.

Regarding the effect on producers, Rojas highlights that this decrease in production could affect the markets and the prices of the family basket, particularly in urban areas.

Furthermore, he warns that while some farmers might get a better price for their produce, poor crop yields would reduce their profits.

For his part, Roger Florespresident of Conveagro Puno, points out that the probable lack of rain in this region, in the critical months of September and Octobercould bring serious consequences for farmers, which would lead this area of ​​the country to a food crisis.

Data

• Drop. The agricultural sector fell 3.4% in the first half of 2023. In addition, between August and June, sowings decreased 2.2%.

• Detail. The agricultural subsector fell 4.6% and the livestock subsector 1.0%.

The word

Approach. Anaximander Rojas, President of Conveagro.

“The regions most affected by the FEN are mainly those in the south and southeast of the country, where drought and diseases such as blight have had a negative impact on crops.”