The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) reported that in its latest survey of macroeconomic expectations carried out in November, it revealed that 9 indicators, out of a total of 18, were located in the segment optimistic, while in the previous month this figure was 10.
Although most indicators showed a decrease, an improvement was reflected in the expectations of hiring personnel at 3 months, which reached 50 points, and thus went from pessimistic to optimistic last November.
Meanwhile, the current situation indicators show mixed results, while those for expectations at 3 and 12 months mostly show a decrease, compared to the previous month, with the exception of hiring of personnel at 3 and 12 months.
Regarding inflation expectations, economic agents estimate that for this year they are between 4.1% and 5.8%, a reflection of the recent increase in the rate of inflation due to transitory supply factors. For the year 2022, the expected inflation rate is above the target range (between 3.2% and 3.6%), while for 2023 it is between 2.8% and 3.0%, within the target range.
While the expectations of inflation At 12 months, economic analysts and the financial system went from 3.61% in October to 3.71% in November. “These inflation expectations have been located 84% of the time within the target range in the last 20 years,” says the BCRP.
Finally, the expected exchange rate surveys for the month of November show levels between S / 4.00 and S / 4.10 per dollar for 2021; and between S / 4.01 and S / 4.25 per dollar for the next two years.
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