Dollar falls to S/3.5820 due to weakening of the US economy

Continuing the trend of recent weeks, yesterday the dollar closed at its lowest level in two years and eight months, and settled at S/3.5820. This price has not been seen since November 2020, according to the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).

During the day, the currency depreciated 1.10% compared to S/3.6220 at the close of Tuesday. Thus, it has fallen 5.91% so far this year.

In the parallel market, it was trading at S/3.58 for the purchase and S/3.61 for the sale. While in the banking market it was bought at S/3.4910 and sold at S/3.6720 at the windows of Banco de Crédito del Perú (BCP).

According to Fabiola Gutiérrez, a foreign exchange trader at Rent4 SAT, during the day the market put downward pressure due to the local and offshore supply, maintaining said trend at the close. Thus, the dollar had a maximum of S/3.6030 and reached a minimum of S/3.5700.

In the market they were traded US$230 million at an average price of S/3.5876. While the dollar index was trading at 100.55 at the close of the market.

Data from the United States did not convince

The main factor behind the collapse of the dollar in Peru and other countries in the region was that the United States indicators have not met the expectations of economic agents, which contributes to the perception that this economy is “weakened.” , according to the economist Omar Azañedo.

Yesterday it was announced that inflation fell in June to 3%, reaching its lowest level since before the pandemic, according to the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.

“Although inflation continues to recede, it is still ‘slightly’ lower. Which means that everything that has been done has not had a great impact, which is why there is talk of a readjustment of the reference interest rates ”, he specified.

The next meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed) will be this Wednesday, July 26, in which the rate is expected to rise from 5.25% to 5.50%, according to Reuters.

The local context also had an influence, since in the last week they have been changing Dollars for the payment of salaries and bonuses in July, which increased the supply of the green ticket in the local market. “Let’s not forget that in our country, today, 70% of the billing, if not more, of the companies is in dollars,” said Azañedo.

What can be expected for the coming months? For the second semester, it is more probable that the dollar will remain high, assures the specialist, since in contexts of crisis this continues to be the refuge currency, and at a global level and in Peru the growth projections are “very low”.

“I think that the dollar will gradually recover its value up to S/3.70, S/3.80, towards the end of the year,” he emphasized.

Data

Coins. The sol was the one that appreciated the most in the region with 1.11%followed by the Mexican peso (0.97%), the Brazilian real (0.90%) and the Colombian peso (0.74%), according to Reuters.

Europe. The euro rose to its highest level since March 2022 and reached US$1.1131 (+1.1%).