This Thursday, September 29, the start of the economic recession in the United Stateswhose GDP fell 0.1% in the second quarter of 2022.
In this regard, Víctor Díaz, managing director of Fixed Income at Credicorp Capital Asset Management, stated that Peru will not be affected by the recession in the United States nor by the one estimated for the Eurozone, since we are more closely linked to the Chinese economy. , which remains stable.
“Peru is more dependent on China than on the United States or Europe. We will see a slowdown in (Peruvian economic) growth this year but we believe that it will be difficult for China to enter a recession, which is why we see the base scenario for a recession in Peru as very low“, said.
He also pointed out that the economic slowdown in the United States will be quite limited. It is worth noting that in annual terms, the economy of the North American giant fell 0.6%.
Why is the Peruvian economy strong?
Credicorp Capital expects Peru’s economy to grow around 3.0% this year thanks to high metal prices that continue to favor us. Only Colombia (7.50%) surpasses us with respect to Latin America.
By 2023, despite the lower global growth, the Peruvian GDP will be at the regional head with 2.80% along with Colombia, with 2.50%.
Diaz adds that Despite the argument that “Peru is super bad”, it enjoys greater slack in credit ratings as there are “very few” negative biases compared to other countries in the region.
“The goods that we export rose in price much more than those that we imported. We were hit by the rise in oil, but now with its fall they have moderated. We see a significant decline in gasoline prices,” he added.
Finally, they project stability in the average rating, despite the fact that Moody’s aligns its criteria from BBB+ to BBB, since we weigh down a premium for political risk that may affect business expectations.