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Peruvian GDP down: it fell 0.24% from January to April

Peruvian GDP down: it fell 0.24% from January to April

The Peruvian economy grew just 0.31% during April of this year, as a symptom of the cooling of national production, considering that in the accumulated since January there is a contraction of 0.24%.

The reasons? The arrival of El Niño Costero severely impacted the coast and mountains, precisely sectors such as agriculture, which plummeted 14.21% in April, and so far this year, 4.63%, according to data from the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).

“What was seen in April in agriculture is its lowest drop since the second half of 1992. This conditioned the result. Without the fall in agriculture, growth (in April) would have been 1.3% and not 0.3%,” the director of Phase Consultores told La República, Juan Carlos Odar.

In addition, other items that ended the fourth month in red are fishing, construction, manufacturing, telecommunications and financial services.

In year-on-year terms, the variation has also been weak, since it was barely 1.38%. The Sunat warned in its latest tax collection report that in April there would be a “modest” performance of around 1.5% (in May, the interannual variation was 1.68%).

MEF must be realistic

Despite the slowdown seen in these months and the latent threat of the El Niño phenomenon, the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) assures that GDP will grow this year by 2.5%.

Already the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank have reduced their estimates to 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively, not only because of the rains and mudslides, but also because of the political crisis and the slow execution of budgets.

Even Julio Velarde, president of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), acknowledges that, despite the projected 2.6%, a strong downward bias will persist, and it is expected that today in the presentation of the Inflation Report it will show a figure minor.

“To grow 2.5% in the year as projected by the MEF, we would have to grow 3.8% in the remaining months, something practically impossible. Most likely, we will have growth of less than 2%,” the economist said on Twitter. Luis Arias Minaya.

For his part, Odar forecasts a rate of 1.5%, and with it, without considering the collapse brought about by the coronavirus in 2020, we would have our lowest growth since 2009a year marked by the global financial and economic crisis.

Factors that portend a further decline

From the Peruvian Institute of Economy (IPE) they corrected their GDP projection for this year from 1.9% to 1.7%. They did not rule out reducing it further if “negative shocks on primary production continue to materialize and if private investment persists, which would have fallen by more than 10% at the beginning of the second quarter.” These facts weigh down the economy, since fewer jobs are created and households have a limited recovery of their consumption capacity.

ComexPeru demands prevention works to prevent the climate emergency from harming agriculture.

Approach

Juan Carlos Odar, Director of Phase Consultants

“We are outside the 2.5% scenario (of the MEF) for this year. We expect 1.5% with a marked downward bias (…). The MEF should not hold excessively optimistic expectations”.

larepublica.pe
Infographic - The Republic

Infographic – The Republic

Source: Larepublica

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