Analysis of the UTEG on changes in consumption habits shows a conservative outlook. The Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce projects a 9% increase in sales.
Eight out of ten households are expected to spend the same or less this Christmas than last year, and the other two families expect to spend more. In businesses, the projection is that this higher consumption will allow them to sell 9% more during December.
In the midst of an economy on the way to recovery and with the pandemic that is still being faced, slight differences are noted in consumption habits for this celebration, according to data from a survey carried out by the Universidad Tecnológica Empresarial de Guayaquil (UTEG ).
81% of families consider that they will spend the same (35%) or less (46%) with respect to what they bought in 2020 and approximately 19% consider that they will spend more in 2021. “A conservative outlook is looming considering that we are still in an economic recession as a result of the pandemic ”, indicates the analysis that was carried out based on surveys of 728 families from different social strata of Guayaquil.
The decision to spend less is greater in workers with a dependency ratio (47%) than in independent workers (43.2%). And “this can be seen as a product of the uncertain panorama that we face due to the pandemic and the proposals for labor reforms that are intended to be approved in the Assembly, but the other side of the coin is the people who find themselves in a labor independence as a result of trade. and of the ventures where the economy has been revitalized, so it feels a little more stable in spending the same and even more with respect to the year 2020 ″.
And it is that those who have a formal job continue to fear whether or not they will continue with that stability. Although people are already going out, their purchasing power has not changed and all this makes people stop consumption, says economic analyst Héctor Delgado Oviedo.
“You can see a recovery compared to the previous year which was bad, that does not mean it is good. It is not that we are reaching the levels before the pandemic, that would be the ideal, but at least it is a relief and we must continue with the same trend, “he adds. For this, it considers three aspects: security, taxation and what will happen with the reform that will influence the perception of people if they consume more or less, and also the labor issue, because the more work there is, the safer people are and will consume plus.
Now they are consuming less because they spend a little bit on savings, because they learned something from the pandemic, the importance of saving, not spending on unnecessary things, having an emergency fund
Héctor Delgado, economic analyst
The effect of the pandemic last Christmas was reflected in the national turnover. The Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce indicates that 6% less was billed for the holidays in December 2020 compared to the same month in 2019. At the national level, $ 19,489 million were billed.
And for 2021, amid the economic rebound and the reduction of restrictions, the billing for that month is expected to increase by 9%. “The signs of recovery are various. Some sectors, such as commerce, are already billing above pre-pandemic levels. This would mean that domestic demand is recovering, ”says the Chamber.
What products are in demand are shown in the UTEG data on the predominant Christmas purchases. The highest priorities that clothing and technology had in 2020 continue in 2021, with changes in a few percentage points, and the main destination of the least priority purchases remains in toys.
The approximate budget allocation would maintain the same trend. For most households, the Christmas dinner is within a budget of $ 100 to $ 200, while in gifts they usually spend more than $ 500 and in other items that may include the purchase of goods or others, the most common budget is between $ 200 and $ 400.
The return of family gatherings for Christmas dinner encourages sales
A bigger turkey is one of the expectations for this Christmas dinner that will be like the return of family reunions. And it is that a year ago, due to COVID-19, meetings of more than ten people were prohibited, there was a curfew for holidays and vaccines did not arrive in the country, now – without those restrictions and with 68% of the population vaccinated – dinners are expected to be a factor in recovery.
25% more turkeys are produced for this season, returning to pre-pandemic levels
Chicken, turkey and pork did not cease to be the options in 2020 when the Universidad Tecnológica Empresarial de Guayaquil (UTEG) asked what foods they usually prepare at Christmas dinner. For this menu, most households allocate $ 100 to $ 200.
“It is complex to define a difference between these proteins because all three are highly consumed at these parties. However, we trust that this Christmas will be a date for the family reunion, which must be carried out with all the biosecurity measures ”, says Andrés Pérez, director of Institutional Relations at Pronaca. Last season there was a variation in sales and consumption compared to previous years, but “demand normalized and in 2021 it was reactivated.”
The change occurred “not so much in terms of varying the protein but rather in the purchase portions, that is, the purchase of turkey was maintained, but its size decreased, we believe that mainly due to the fact that the meetings were smaller ”Adds Rubén Salazar, corporate manager of Corporación Favorita.
His expectation is that this year the level will be slightly higher than in 2019, as “there will be more family reunions and the outlay will increase with larger sizes of turkeys and pig legs.”
How do you finance your Christmas shopping?
Indistinctly if the Christmas purchases are made using cash or credit, debit or commercial house cards, these payments are covered with the salary (61.68%) and with the thirteenth (35.85%), and to a lesser extent they are as source of financing for these purchases: consumer loans (1.79%) and unsecured loans (0.69%). In the case of men, 71.79% of their expenses are based on salary and 24.64% comes from the tenth. In women there is a different behavior: 55.26% finances them with the salary and 42.95% with the 13th.
How did you get into debt?
Families are thinking of investing in assets that, although they represent a long-term debt, add to their assets. The analysis of the changes in the consumption habits of the UTEG shows a reduction in other goods for which they plan to borrow. 5% of those surveyed anticipate acquiring vehicles compared to 6% who did so in 2020; 15% are planning the purchase of appliances, while last year 20% did. Where there is an increase is in housing: 18% of those surveyed plan to acquire one, 4% more than in 2020.
Advice
- The credit card is not money in your pocket, it has a cost. It should be used only for things that are necessary and that you know you can pay for, not get carried away by emotions or promotions, says analyst Héctor Delgado. As the time and payment term increase, the cost of money is higher.
- As for gifts, try to see options. Not so expensive and identify the people who really are a priority to give gifts. The way people consume has changed, they are already starting instead of giving a very expensive gift, they are looking to share. (I)
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