Credicorp maintains expectations of economic growth in Peru at 2% this 2023

The expectation of economic growth in Peru continues at 2% for 2023, while for 2024 it is 2.7%, estimated the financial group Credicorp.

Although he indicated that these projections are slightly lower in relation to the International Monetary Fund (2.2%), the Ministry of Economy and Finance (2.5%) and the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (2.6), still “It is located in a high range of market estimates, which expects growth between 1.5% for Peru this year.”

He reiterated that the main engine for the rise will be the mining sector, especially Quellaveco’s mining production, which will contribute between 0.5% and 1% to the gross domestic product (GDP) during the first year.

“The global context remains uncertain, but we expect international growth of 2% or 3% for the next two years,” said Darío Valdizán, executive director of Buy Side Research at Credicorp Capital.

He also indicated that they still do not know how long the financial restrictions imposed to deal with inflation in the most developed countries will last.

Regarding the Federal Reserve (FED), specialists project that current levels will be maintained for a long time by 2023; however, the recent upward revision of the US economy scatters a possible recession for this year, but it could occur by 2024.

Another factor is the economic strength of China, which is expected to be between 5% and 5.5% for the next two years. “It is towards the Asian country where the sensitivity of Peruvian growth is greater, of 0.6% given its influence on the price of copper, which will remain at attractive levels,” added the specialist.

Private investment

Credicorp also indicated that private investment is in negative territory, less than 1%. Likewise, that in the first quarter of 2023 there was a drop of around -12%.

“We hope that in the coming quarters signs of a rebound in business expectations will be observed, but after a year it would close with growth close to 0%,” concluded Valdizán.