With little more than a month until the end of 2021, specialists indicate what are the challenges that the current Government has in the face of economic recovery.
In the forum ‘Resilient Peru: Challenges and Potentialities’, organized by Make Peru, the economist Alfonso de la Torre, the director of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Roxana Barrantes, the former Minister of Production Piero Ghezzi and the specialist in social policies and development Carolina Trivelli presented their proposals that would help economic growth to be reflected in citizens.
Betting on private investment, providing support to more than 2 million farmers and promoting new economic engines in rural areas are some of the issues that experts put on the 2022 agenda.
Investment is needed
Roxana Barrantes, economist and director of the BCRP
Without private investment, this meager 3% growth forecast for next year is not even going to materialize. Peru does not do it with 3% growth, we cannot generate the resources, we cannot precisely modernize society and it would seem that we are orienting ourselves to a low-level equilibrium, in which we are going to have little confidence, low economic growth and setbacks in modernization efforts, and to have a public career for citizen service that looks at the long term, what will be the expectation of productivity and power of agency of all citizens.
We have not had that consistency of message and we have not necessarily had consistency with the action due to the difficulties of having technical cadres that can contribute to generating those spaces for dialogue necessary for the sustainability of the investment.
Changes with transparency
Alfonso de la Torre, economist
We have a recovery that, beyond the aggregate figures when one looks at employment or average income in Lima, is still 9% below the pre-pandemic level. We have a recovery that, added, begins to recover the levels of 2019, but when you look at the distribution, there are still many people who have not seen improvements. The Government has to adjust the discourse and the program, in the face of such a situation.
The costs of the agenda must be made transparent; if the Government wants to propose important changes in the functioning of the economy or in the political system, it must recognize that there will be costs, perhaps in the short term, and that, in the Government’s vision, these costs they are justified by profits later.
It is important that the Government do this for what is to come.
Rural area is key
Carolina Trivelli, specialist in social policies and rural development
We have to find new formats for economic inclusion for populations that by themselves will not be able to overcome a condition of poverty, either because they have few productive resources or because they do not have access to technology and there are no technical assistance services in the market that are sufficiently overcrowded. as for them, that is, because they do not have the financial lever to overcome some of the demands that the most attractive markets ask of them.
Rural Peru, which we always see as a difficult, poor and complex place to serve, is where a good part of our present and future growth engines are located. It is in the rural world where Peru is going to play its chances of expanding potential growth. Let’s start building on those examples that are already happening in the rural world and we know that they do work.
Piero Ghezzi, former Minister of Production
We have to promote the vertical associativity model that has to reduce the costs of articulating value chains, and from there we have to think of some incentive for producers.
The issue of water is fundamental, we have to somehow subsidize the installation of technical irrigation within a value chain.
Instead of taking the leap in quality that is insertion in a highly profitable production chain, they prefer to continue under current conditions. The agricultural sector is fantastic for Peru and perhaps the most important because, on the one hand, it has high levels of productivity and, also, because it generates a lot of employment.
Agriculture, under the right conditions, can lift many people out of poverty, but we must do things in a different way than we do today.