The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth forecast for Peru in May to 2.2% for 2023, from the 2.4% recorded in its last report in April.
The international organization specified that this new setback for the Peruvian economy is due to the high social conflict that occurred in the first quarter of the year, in addition to natural disasters and different policies applied by the Government.
“The tightening of financial conditions, the slowdown in credit growth, subdued external demand, weaker confidence, the impact of social protests and transport blockades earlier in the year, fertilizer shortages and recent cyclonic rains and torrential,” says the IMF.
For the IMF, Peru maintains copper exports, leveraged by the Quellaveco mine, one of its few hopes to recover the growth rate, in a good fight due to the increase in global metal prices.
Precisely, it indicated that the development of GDP “would gradually converge towards potential in the medium term”, and the small negative output gap of 0.4% (of potential GDP) in 2023 is expected to close in 2024.
The agency pointed out that the current account deficit will reach 1.9% of GDP in 2023 and could decrease by 1.5% in the medium term, with little risk of foreign financing and debt refinancing.
Finally, the IMF expects inflation to remain in the short term due to supply shocks and increases in education; although he said he expected quick results from the policies applied by the MEF.
Source: Larepublica
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