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Chicken price would fall in June: what factors does a greater decrease depend on?

Chicken price would fall in June: what factors does a greater decrease depend on?

The price of a kilo of chicken remains elusive to the pocket of citizens after exceeding S/12 in the retail markets of Lime and various cities in the country. In a context in which the dollar is falling, many wonder if the cheap exchange rate influences a reduction in the price of this food. However, although it is one of the factors, there are more causes, on which it depends that the price of the meat of this bird, which is part of the Peruvian diet, is regularized.

According to data from the Ministry of Agrarian Development and Irrigation (midagri), only at the end of 2022, the average price of a kilo of chicken was quoted at S/10.32, and at the end of January 2023, it was around S/9.78. However, since February a drastic increase began to be felt, standing at S/11.87 due to the blockade of roads as a result of the massive protests against the regime of Dina Boluarte and the Congressa situation that prevented the transfer of supplies such as the bolivian soyan important input for the chicken growth process.

A slight decrease in the price of chicken can be registered in the last four weeks.  Photo: Midagri

A slight decrease in the price of chicken can be registered in the last four weeks. Photo: Midagri

By March, this product took off at S/12.90, while last April, to the concern of homes Peruvians, came to be marketed at S/13.20. To date, the trend seems to want to be reversed, since as of Thursday, May 18, the meat of this bird is sold for up to S/12.04 per kilogram, which means a slight retracement of -5.05%, unlike the last month and -3.53% compared to the last week. Will it continue to decline?

Chicken price: Midagri expected a better drop

In the words of the Vice Minister of Development of Family Farming and Agrarian Infrastructure and IrrigationChristian Barrantes, the price of chicken has come from a process of slow decline. “We expected a steeper dropbut it depends on many things. In these times, such as Mother’s Day, there is a greater demand, which causes prices to increase a bit. But it is important to ensure that there is a sufficient supply of chicken,” stated on RPP.

Along these lines, he affirmed that next June a “much more affordable” price for this bird is expected at S/11 per kg., due to the fact that the two factors that affected the production of the bird, such as the bird flu and lack of supplies (corn and soy) “have already been mitigated.”

Chicken price in Peru

At the end of April, the price of this bird’s meat was S/13.90 in some markets in Lima. Photo: Andean

Let us remember that at the end of March, the president of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP), Julio Velarde, indicated that “the bird flu The number of breeding hens was affecting many countries in the region” which led to an increase in the price of chicken and eggs. Despite the impact, the experienced banker was confident in maintaining that both prices would normalize between May and June .

“The avian flu is not yet resolved”

In dialogue with La República, Pedro José de Zavala, director of the Peruvian Poultry Association (APA) rejected the words of Vice Minister Barrantes and maintained that the bird flu it is not a resolved issue. “What happens is that the producers are already beginning to vaccinate, but not all the chickens layers are inoculated. There are those who have died and they will have to recover, but this takes time,” she said.

bird flu affected chickens

Peruvian Poultry Association (APA) points out that there are still farms affected by bird flu. Photo: composition LR/Andina

“There is bird flu and next year there will be again, because this virus is brought by birds that migrate from Canada. What has happened is that the authorities have authorized the vaccine that prevents the bird from dying; however, it can affect productivity. bird flu is like COVID-19. There are still farms affected because they are not vaccinated. In October and November it can worsen. That it is over, it is not,” he said.

Chicken price: would it drop in June?

Zavala explained that the key variable that mainly moves the price of chicken and eggs It’s supply and demand. “If there is more supply, the price falls. What happens is that now the demand is restricted. Does the low dollar help? Yes, but above all the price is governed by the laws of the market,” she points out.

About a higher offer that indicates the midagrithe representative of the poultry union agrees on a possible reduction in the price of chicken for the month of June. “The trend says yes because there is more supply, but it will depend on how many pullets they are carrying now. (…) On the side of the low exchange ratethe cost of corn and soybeans should be lower,” he said.

Although he warns that in the event of, for example, an entire farm getting avian flu and 5 million chickens dying, the price of chicken would skyrocket. “This can perfectly happen. In the case of the eggYes, I can assure you that at least the offer will be recovered at the end of the year, due to the global shortage“, he mentioned.

Chicken Price: Is the Soy Shortage Over?

About the supply of soythe director of the APA said that what has been solved is that people are bringing it from elsewhere, which does not mean that the costs are lower. “The cheapest soy is from Bolivia, but given its instability, they are looking for other suppliers such as Argentine, American or Bolivian soybeans from Chile. By itself, the price of soybeans is expensive,” the representative explained.

In January 2023, the imported volume of Bolivian soybean cake fell by 64.4%.  due to blockages.  Photo:

In January 2023, the imported volume of Bolivian soybean cake fell by 64.4%. due to blockages. Photo:

Finally, he explained that the reason why the price of chicken in regions like Cusco exceeds S/15 is due to the lack of production of this bird, which adds other costs such as transportation.

Source: Larepublica

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